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Rankings
#74 of 107 in Division 3
#19 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #86 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #74 in D3 (-402 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 20-0 A #547 Dunbar (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 8 (64%), perf. rating 104
08/29 W 42-20 A #408 Mount Healthy (0-4) D2 R8, pick: L by 17 (20%), perf. rating 129
09/05 L 35-8 A #210 Roger Bacon (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 5 (61%), perf. rating 83
09/11 L 22-14 H #365 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 87
09/19 H #618 Clark Montessori (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 34 (98%)
09/26 A #464 Western Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 14 (81%)
10/03 A #46 Taft (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/10 H #646 Woodward (Cincy) (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/17 H #49 Withrow (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/25 A #356 Aiken (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 5 (37%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
6.99 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.55 ( 2.66-17.99) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Jackson (3-1) 18%
Lose: 5.08 ( 1.70-12.69) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 15.57 (12.94-17.99) 91% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 18%
(33%) 6W: 10.37 ( 7.74-14.97) 6% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jackson (3-1) 23%
(49%) 5W: 6.99 ( 4.37-14.01) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(17%) 4W: 5.28 ( 2.66-10.33) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(32%) WWLWLW: 10.37 ( 7.74-13.30) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jackson (3-1) 23%
( 4%) WLLWLW: 8.15 ( 5.83-11.54) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 100%
(44%) WWLWLL: 6.99 ( 4.37-10.33) out
(15%) WLLWLL: 5.18 ( 2.66- 8.31) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 99.2, #377, D3 #74), 3% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 103.9, #352, D3 #70), 27% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 118.0, #235, D3 #48), 71% (bubble if 7-3), 26% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 103.6, #334, D3 #66), 37% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 96.7, #391, D3 #75), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 96.3