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Rankings
#65 of 101 in Division 4
#14 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #101 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #32 in D4 (+10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/28 W 46-0 A #615 Ponitz Tech (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 120
09/04 W 53-0 A #635 Bethel-Tate (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 31 (96%), perf. rating 114
09/11 H #493 Meadowdale (1-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 18 (86%)
09/18 H #451 Western Hills (1-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 12 (77%)
09/24 A #526 Belmont (2-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 18 (87%)
10/02 A #542 Summit Country Day (1-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/09 H #543 Clark Montessori (1-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/16 H #559 Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/23 A #666 Norwood (0-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 42 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-1 record
19.45 Harbin points (divisor 88)
#4 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 5-4), 91% home (maybe if 6-3), 59% bye (maybe if 8-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.31 ( 3.48-27.56) 99% in, 95% home, 66% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 67%
Lose: 15.60 ( 2.13-22.40) 82% in, 61% home, 14% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(49%) 9W: 22.44 (18.35-27.56) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 92%
(27%) 8W: 19.45 (15.47-24.67) 100% in, 99% home, 47% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 47%
(13%) 7W: 16.33 (11.16-21.22) 100% in, 92% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), Taft (0-3) 8%
( 6%) 6W: 13.28 ( 9.76-17.20) 98% in, 46% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Wilmington (1-2) 10%
( 3%) 5W: 10.16 ( 7.10-14.09) 59% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Clinton-Massie (0-3) 10%
( 1%) 4W: 7.34 ( 5.12-10.63) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 1%) 3W: 4.39 ( 2.75- 7.69) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(49%) WWWWWWW: 22.44 (18.35-27.56) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 92%
( 9%) WLWWWWW: 19.96 (16.89-23.31) 100% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 56%
( 4%) WWWLWWW: 19.56 (15.98-22.62) 100% in, 99% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 49%
( 2%) WWWWWLW: 19.44 (16.83-22.39) 100% in, 99% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 45%
( 4%) LWWWWWW: 19.16 (15.92-22.40) 100% in, 99% home, 40% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 40%
( 2%) WWWWLWW: 19.05 (15.98-22.34) 100% in, 99% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 41%
( 5%) WWLWWWW: 18.59 (15.47-22.51) 100% in, 99% home, 35% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 35%
( 1%) LLLWWWW: 13.17 (10.67-15.33) 99% in, 40% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Meadowdale (1-2) 13%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-0, 96.4, #391, D4 #65), 97% (bubble if 5-4), 91% home (maybe if 6-3), 59% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #4 at 8-1
Week 2 (1-0, 87.7, #444, D4 #70), 86% (bubble if 5-4), 69% home (maybe if 7-2), 30% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #6 at 8-1
Week 1 (0-0, 72.9, #541, D4 #85), 52% (bubble if 5-4), 34% home (maybe if 6-3), 14% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #11 at 5-4
Week 0 (0-0, 72.9, #538, D4 #84), 49% (bubble if 5-4), 29% home (maybe if 7-2), 9% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #12 at 5-4
Last season 76.6