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Rankings
#58 of 106 in Division 5
#14 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #105 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #28 in D5 (+55 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 32-20 A #440 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 27 (11%), perf. rating 108
08/29 W 36-0 H #644 Ponitz Tech (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 101
09/05 W 32-20 H #540 Bethel-Tate (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 20 (87%), perf. rating 89
09/12 W 20-0 A #531 Meadowdale (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 107
09/19 A #464 Western Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 7 (67%)
09/26 H #563 Belmont (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/03 H #586 Summit Country Day (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/11 A #618 Clark Montessori (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/17 A #510 Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/24 H #655 Norwood (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 37 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
20.51 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#1 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 92% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.43 (12.09-26.52) 99% in, 99% home, 97% bye, proj. #1 (#1-out), bye 97%
Lose: 19.60 ( 8.41-23.95) 99% in, 98% home, 81% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 81%
Based on eventual number of wins
(49%) 10W: 22.88 (19.55-26.52) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(31%) 9W: 20.51 (16.72-23.95) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(14%) 8W: 17.54 (14.00-21.98) 100% home, 77% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 77%
( 4%) 7W: 14.91 (11.99-19.16) 100% in, 98% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 30%
( 1%) 6W: 12.67 (10.73-17.60) 98% in, 76% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(49%) WWWWWW: 22.88 (19.55-26.52) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(17%) LWWWWW: 21.07 (18.59-23.95) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 1%) WWLWWW: 20.81 (18.14-22.88) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) WLWWWW: 19.53 (16.98-21.88) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 9%) WWWWLW: 19.30 (16.72-22.88) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 96%
( 2%) LLWWWW: 17.62 (15.17-20.17) 100% home, 77% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 77%
( 7%) LWWWLW: 17.44 (14.61-20.06) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 79%
( 2%) LLWWLW: 13.96 (11.99-16.08) 100% in, 97% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), bye 11%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 92.5, #421, D5 #58), likely in and likely home, 92% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 84.4, #467, D5 #65), 97% (bubble if 4-6), 88% home (maybe if 6-4), 62% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 84.6, #467, D5 #66), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 6-4), 46% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 74.5, #539, D5 #80), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 58.0, #613, D5 #93), 22% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 63.8