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Rankings
#78 of 107 in Division 6
#15 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #62 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #77 in D6 (-433 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 7-6 A #510 Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 35 (5%), perf. rating 79
08/29 W 17-6 H #618 Clark Montessori (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 71
09/05 W 21-0 H #688 Lockland (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 55
09/12 L 30-6 A #440 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 18 (14%), perf. rating 54
09/19 H #661 Miami Valley Christian (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/26 H #668 Gamble Montessori (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/03 A #421 North College Hill (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/10 H #210 Roger Bacon (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/17 A #365 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/24 H #203 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 39 (1%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.69 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
42% (bubble if 4-6), 4% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.79 ( 2.87-17.34) 45% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 17%
Lose: 4.03 ( 1.66-13.46) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 5W: 9.42 ( 5.58-11.95) 99% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 19%
(79%) 4W: 5.69 ( 4.07- 9.73) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 21%
(11%) 3W: 4.08 ( 2.51- 7.01) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWLLL: 10.13 ( 8.16-11.95) 100% in, 54% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Dayton Christian (3-1) 20%
( 1%) WWLLLW: 9.42 ( 7.25-11.69) 100% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Anna (3-1) 20%
( 2%) WWLLWL: 7.91 ( 5.58- 9.78) 95% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 19%
(78%) WWLLLL: 5.69 ( 4.07- 8.32) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 21%
( 5%) WLLLLL: 4.08 ( 2.87- 7.01) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 33%
( 6%) LWLLLL: 4.08 ( 2.51- 5.95) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Coldwater (2-2) 50%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 64.0, #586, D6 #78), 42% (bubble if 4-6), 4% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 66.7, #580, D6 #76), 80% (bubble if 3-7), 28% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 67.0, #580, D6 #78), 71% (bubble if 4-6), 29% home (maybe if 5-5), 6% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 69.5, #565, D6 #72), 74% (bubble if 4-6), 44% home (maybe if 5-5), 13% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 54.7, #626, D6 #89), 37% (bubble if 4-6), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 54.8