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Rankings
#90 of 100 in Division 2
#25 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #98 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D2 (-323 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 29-0 A #651 Woodward (Cincy) (0-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 17 (78%), perf. rating 86
08/28 W 38-0 A #691 New Miami (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 40 (98%), perf. rating 74
09/03 L 35-34 A #499 South (Columbus) (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 14 (22%), perf. rating 80
09/11 A #257 Tri-Village (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 32 (3%)
09/18 H #472 Dunbar (1-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 5 (38%)
09/24 H #391 North College Hill (2-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 18 (13%)
10/03 A #696 Manchester (1-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 45 (99%)
10/07 H #654 Thurgood Marshall (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/15 A #493 Meadowdale (1-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/21 A #615 Ponitz Tech (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 19 (89%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
8.37 Harbin points (divisor 96)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
9% (likely needs 8-2), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.75 ( 6.44-21.02) 50% in, 11% home, proj. out (#5-out), Lima Senior (2-1) 17%
Lose: 7.64 ( 0.85-17.76) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Talawanda (3-0) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 18.68 (16.75-21.02) 99% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Withrow (2-1) 13%
( 7%) 8W: 15.05 (12.03-18.65) 80% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Talawanda (3-0) 18%
(17%) 7W: 11.27 ( 8.93-16.33) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out), Talawanda (3-0) 19%
(29%) 6W: 8.37 ( 6.39-12.54) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(32%) 5W: 5.84 ( 4.12-10.59) out, proj. out
(13%) 4W: 4.67 ( 2.48- 7.37) out, proj. out
( 1%) 3W: 3.08 ( 1.82- 4.59) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 18.68 (16.75-21.02) 99% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Withrow (2-1) 13%
( 6%) LWWWWWW: 15.05 (12.03-17.76) 81% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Talawanda (3-0) 18%
(11%) LWLWWWW: 10.85 ( 9.55-13.46) 9% in, proj. out (#11-out), Talawanda (3-0) 20%
(11%) LWLWWLW: 8.16 ( 6.39-10.87) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Trotwood-Madison (2-1) 50%
(12%) LLLWWWW: 8.06 ( 6.45-10.82) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Talawanda (3-0) 100%
(27%) LLLWWLW: 5.79 ( 4.12- 8.50) out
(11%) LLLWWLL: 4.67 ( 3.00- 7.11) out
( 1%) LLLWLLL: 3.13 ( 1.93- 4.59) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 76.1, #526, D2 #90), 9% (likely needs 8-2), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 75.2, #529, D2 #88), 24% (bubble if 8-2), 5% home (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 73.6, #535, D2 #92), 33% (bubble if 8-2), 6% home (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 66.3, #575, D2 #93), 30% (bubble if 8-2), 8% home (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 7-3
Last season 66.6