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Rankings
#69 of 72 in Division 1
#18 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #68 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D1 (-533 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 27-24 H #462 Walnut Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 20 (18%), perf. rating 78
08/29 L 42-0 A #210 Roger Bacon (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 23 (12%), perf. rating 60
09/05 W 60-7 H #616 Thurgood Marshall (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 19 (86%), perf. rating 118
09/12 L 48-8 A #50 Harrison (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 46 (1%), perf. rating 93
09/19 H #421 North College Hill (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 7 (33%)
09/26 H #377 Hughes (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 14 (19%)
10/04 A #356 Aiken (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/10 A #46 Taft (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 47 (1%)
10/17 A #646 Woodward (Cincy) (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 H #49 Withrow (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 44 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
40% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.85 ( 4.35-24.10) 91% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Lakota East (3-1) 21%
Lose: 2.65 ( 1.05-15.15) 16% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 25%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 5W: 12.80 (10.60-16.35) 100% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#7-#11), Lakota East (3-1) 30%
(12%) 4W: 9.50 ( 7.10-14.00) 99% in, 2% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Lakota East (3-1) 28%
(30%) 3W: 6.25 ( 3.85-11.30) 73% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 26%
(50%) 2W: 2.15 ( 1.60- 8.55) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Lakota West (2-2) 26%
( 3%) 1W: 1.60 ( 1.05- 3.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWLWL: 12.75 (10.60-14.90) 100% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#7-#11), Lakota East (3-1) 31%
( 7%) WWLLWL: 9.50 ( 7.15-12.35) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 28%
( 3%) WLWLWL: 9.50 ( 7.55-12.70) 100% in, 3% home, proj. #10 (#8-#12), Lakota East (3-1) 33%
(18%) WLLLWL: 6.80 ( 4.45- 9.40) 83% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 26%
( 4%) LLWLWL: 5.40 ( 4.30- 7.65) 56% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 26%
( 8%) LWLLWL: 4.90 ( 3.85- 7.50) 53% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 27%
(49%) LLLLWL: 2.15 ( 1.60- 4.80) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lakota West (2-2) 27%
( 3%) LLLLLL: 1.60 ( 1.05- 3.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 83.4, #464, D1 #69), 40% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 80.4, #496, D1 #69), 36% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 71.6, #556, D1 #71), 20% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 80.4, #509, D1 #70), 37% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 75.1, #534, D1 #71), 29% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 69.8