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Rankings
#26 of 100 in Division 2
#6 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #50 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D2 (-92 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 50-13 H #459 Walnut Hills (0-6) D1 R4, pick: W by 34 (94%), perf. rating 139
08/28 W 45-12 A #283 Chaminade Julienne (1-5) D3 R12, pick: W by 32 (95%), perf. rating 163
09/04 L 23-13 H #62 Springboro (3-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 16 (19%), perf. rating 132
09/11 L 22-13 A #49 Harrison (5-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 143
09/18 L 24-21 A #95 Archbishop McNicholas (4-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 137
09/25 W 52-0 H #547 Western Hills (1-5) D1 R4, pick: W by 47 (99%), perf. rating 132
10/02 A #55 La Salle (3-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/09 H #509 Aiken (1-5) D2 R8, pick: W by 43 (99%)
10/16 H #328 Hughes (6-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/24 A #414 Taft (0-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 34 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
13.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
41% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.25 ( 9.70-18.40) 98% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), West (6-0) 21%
Lose: 13.15 ( 4.45-15.35) 28% in, proj. out (#9-out), Troy (5-1) 27%
Based on eventual number of wins
(18%) 7W: 16.25 (15.05-18.40) 99% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), West (6-0) 21%
(77%) 6W: 13.15 (10.35-16.35) 30% in, proj. out (#9-out), Troy (5-1) 27%
( 5%) 5W: 8.40 ( 6.65-13.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(18%) WWWW: 16.25 (15.05-18.40) 99% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), West (6-0) 21%
(77%) LWWW: 13.15 (11.90-15.35) 30% in, proj. out (#9-out), Troy (5-1) 27%
( 2%) LWWL: 11.40 (10.30-13.05) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Badin (5-1) 100%
( 3%) LWLW: 7.80 ( 6.65- 8.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 139.1, #97, D2 #26), 41% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home, proj. out at 6-4
Week 5 (2-3, 139.6, #93, D2 #26), 30% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 141.6, #88, D2 #25), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 142.8, #75, D2 #22), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 139.8, #92, D2 #28), 76% (bubble if 6-4), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 141.2, #88, D2 #28), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 138.6, #102, D2 #30), 63% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 139.6