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Rankings
#27 of 105 in Division 4
#6 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #64 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #33 in D4 (+18 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 24-7 H #321 Bishop Fenwick (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 4 (56%), perf. rating 130
08/29 L 35-21 A #146 Versailles (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 16 (21%), perf. rating 114
09/05 W 48-6 H #441 Madeira (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 17 (83%), perf. rating 148
09/12 W 56-0 A #655 Norwood (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 108
09/19 H #356 Aiken (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/26 H #50 Harrison (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 25 (6%)
10/03 H #531 Meadowdale (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/10 A #365 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/17 H #210 Roger Bacon (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/24 A #586 Summit Country Day (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 39 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
17.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 80% home (maybe if 7-3), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.10 ( 9.80-28.40) 99% in, 84% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 20%
Lose: 13.70 ( 6.90-23.50) 93% in, 34% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Washington (2-2) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 9W: 25.35 (21.60-28.40) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(45%) 8W: 20.55 (15.35-26.25) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 30%
(37%) 7W: 17.05 (12.75-21.40) 100% in, 75% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 19%
(11%) 6W: 13.95 (10.05-18.50) 99% in, 23% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Brookville (4-0) 17%
( 2%) 5W: 10.95 ( 8.40-13.40) 78% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Brookville (4-0) 18%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWW: 25.35 (21.60-28.40) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(43%) WLWWWW: 20.50 (15.35-24.45) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 29%
( 4%) WLWLWW: 17.55 (13.75-21.05) 100% in, 92% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 16%
(29%) WLWWLW: 16.95 (12.75-20.70) 100% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 20%
( 3%) LLWWWW: 16.80 (13.20-20.05) 100% in, 79% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Roger Bacon (2-2) 18%
( 6%) WLWLLW: 14.30 (11.05-17.45) 99% in, 26% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Brookville (4-0) 19%
( 4%) LLWWLW: 13.35 (10.05-16.15) 99% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Washington (2-2) 17%
( 2%) LLWLLW: 10.65 ( 8.40-13.40) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Brookville (4-0) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 121.7, #203, D4 #27), likely in, 80% home (maybe if 7-3), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 125.6, #184, D4 #23), likely in, 84% home (maybe if 6-4), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 114.0, #263, D4 #37), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 67% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 116.6, #238, D4 #29), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 69% home (maybe if 6-4), 25% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 109.4, #279, D4 #43), 59% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 115.2