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Rankings
#20 of 101 in Division 4
#6 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #62 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #11 in D4 (+280 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 28-26 A #164 Bishop Fenwick (1-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 133
08/28 L 20-10 H #119 Versailles (2-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 118
09/04 A #331 Madeira (2-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 19 (86%)
09/11 H #458 New Richmond (1-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/19 A #446 Aiken (1-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 30 (97%)
09/25 H #214 Taft (0-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/02 H #462 Meadowdale (1-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/09 H #419 Purcell Marian (1-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 30 (98%)
10/16 A #343 Roger Bacon (1-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/23 H #558 Summit Country Day (1-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 40 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
5.68 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#5 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 68% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.22 ( 2.56- 6.99) 99% in, 97% home, 75% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 75%
Lose: 4.93 ( 1.61- 6.07) 93% in, 76% home, 23% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 25%
Based on eventual number of wins
(49%) 9W: 6.42 ( 5.86- 6.99) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(30%) 8W: 5.68 ( 5.17- 6.21) 100% in, 99% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 59%
(13%) 7W: 4.97 ( 4.60- 5.49) 100% in, 96% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 13%
( 5%) 6W: 4.26 ( 3.87- 4.78) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Kenton Ridge (1-1) 10%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(49%) WWWWWWWW: 6.42 ( 5.86- 6.99) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 5%) WWWWWWLW: 5.73 ( 5.32- 6.21) 100% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 67%
(17%) WWWLWWWW: 5.68 ( 5.17- 6.21) 100% in, 99% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 55%
( 4%) LWWWWWWW: 5.67 ( 5.30- 6.07) 100% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 64%
( 4%) WWWLWWLW: 5.03 ( 4.68- 5.40) 100% in, 96% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), bye 20%
( 4%) LWWLWWWW: 4.95 ( 4.63- 5.39) 100% in, 95% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#11), bye 10%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 125.9, #179, D4 #20), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 5-5), 75% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 123.8, #189, D4 #21), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 88% home (maybe if 5-5), 65% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 126.5, #168, D4 #15), 89% (bubble if 4-6), 75% home (maybe if 6-4), 41% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Last season 131.0