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Rankings
#77 of 102 in Division 4
#18 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #44 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #69 in D4 (-338 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 40-0 H #169 Goshen (7-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 15 (25%), perf. rating 65
08/28 L 32-0 A #259 Northwest (Cincy) (6-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 27 (9%), perf. rating 69
09/04 W 48-0 H #624 Woodward (Cincy) (1-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 25 (92%), perf. rating 113
09/11 L 34-7 H #256 Deer Park (7-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 21 (11%), perf. rating 72
09/18 L 38-14 A #388 Madeira (4-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 25 (6%), perf. rating 63
09/25 W 49-6 H #655 Finneytown (0-6) D6 R24, pick: W by 31 (98%), perf. rating 100
10/02 W 17-14 A #404 Taylor (1-6) D4 R16, pick: L by 25 (5%), perf. rating 101
10/09 H #385 Mariemont (3-4) D5 R20, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/16 A #118 Wyoming (7-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 38 (1%)
10/23 H #102 Indian Hill (5-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 38 (1%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.42 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.19 ( 5.23-11.95) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Lose: 3.57 ( 2.92-12.55) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(27%) 4W: 6.19 ( 5.23-10.03) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 37%
(73%) 3W: 3.42 ( 2.92- 5.44) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLW: 7.20 ( 5.84- 8.31) 27% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 52%
(25%) WLL: 6.19 ( 5.23- 8.42) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Valley View (5-2) 38%
(73%) LLL: 3.42 ( 2.92- 5.44) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 85.0, #466, D4 #77), 2% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 6 (2-4, 75.4, #525, D4 #85), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 5 (1-4, 71.8, #543, D4 #88), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 4 (1-3, 73.0, #533, D4 #86), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 76.3, #523, D4 #83), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 71.0, #554, D4 #86), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 71.2, #550, D4 #87), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 83.7, #482, D4 #76), 21% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 79.2