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Rankings
#73 of 105 in Division 4
#18 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #55 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #101 in D4 (-795 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-7 H #242 Williamsburg (4-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 83
08/29 L 34-21 H #332 Batavia (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 27 (9%), perf. rating 84
09/05 L 24-20 A #356 Aiken (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 16 (19%), perf. rating 98
09/12 L 26-6 A #394 Deer Park (4-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 68
09/19 H #441 Madeira (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/26 A #633 Finneytown (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/03 H #357 Taylor (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/10 A #435 Mariemont (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/17 H #221 Wyoming (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/24 A #80 Indian Hill (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 41 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
2.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.40 ( 1.35-16.45) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Wyoming (3-1) 17%
Lose: 0.80 ( 0.00-14.25) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 5W: 11.55 (10.75-15.25) 81% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 18%
(11%) 4W: 7.25 ( 6.80-11.35) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(23%) 3W: 4.80 ( 4.40- 9.50) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(33%) 2W: 2.60 ( 2.15- 7.55) out, proj. out
(28%) 1W: 0.80 ( 0.80- 4.85) out, proj. out
( 3%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWL: 11.55 (10.75-12.85) 79% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 19%
( 8%) WWWWLL: 7.20 ( 6.80- 9.10) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wyoming (3-1) 30%
( 5%) WWWLLL: 4.95 ( 4.55- 6.40) out
(13%) WWLWLL: 4.40 ( 4.40- 6.30) out
( 9%) LWLWLL: 2.60 ( 2.60- 4.35) out
(19%) WWLLLL: 2.55 ( 2.15- 4.60) out
(27%) LWLLLL: 0.80 ( 0.80- 2.15) out
( 3%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 86.7, #445, D4 #73), 2% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 93.8, #406, D4 #65), 18% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 92.7, #420, D4 #70), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 88.0, #452, D4 #77), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 102.3, #340, D4 #55), 52% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 99.4