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Rankings
#70 of 105 in Division 5
#16 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #87 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #73 in D5 (-360 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 31-7 A #381 Covington (1-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 7 (37%), perf. rating 63
08/28 W 43-12 H #613 Tri-County North (1-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 101
09/04 A #647 Dixie (2-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 31 (96%)
09/11 H #662 Bradford (1-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 36 (98%)
09/18 H #433 Preble Shawnee (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 5 (38%)
09/25 A #520 National Trail (1-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/02 A #689 Twin Valley South (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/09 H #654 Mississinawa Valley (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/16 A #210 Ansonia (2-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 33 (1%)
10/23 H #260 Tri-Village (2-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 27 (4%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
2.87 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
40% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.88 ( 1.33- 5.05) 42% in, 15% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Bishop Fenwick (1-1) 8%
Lose: 1.74 ( 0.51- 3.05) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 8W: 4.34 ( 4.23- 4.45) 100% in, 94% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 13%
(26%) 7W: 3.59 ( 3.51- 4.00) 98% in, 32% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Bishop Fenwick (1-1) 8%
(35%) 6W: 2.87 ( 2.86- 3.33) 26% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Williamsburg (1-1) 12%
(28%) 5W: 2.25 ( 2.24- 2.78) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 4%) 4W: 1.79 ( 1.66- 2.18) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWWLW: 4.34 ( 4.27- 4.42) 100% in, 97% home, 16% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 16%
( 2%) WWLWWWLW: 3.62 ( 3.51- 3.71) 95% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Preble Shawnee (2-1) 12%
(22%) WWWWWWLL: 3.59 ( 3.58- 3.70) 98% in, 34% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Bishop Fenwick (1-1) 8%
( 9%) WWWLWWLL: 2.96 ( 2.92- 3.05) 42% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Williamsburg (1-1) 12%
(24%) WWLWWWLL: 2.87 ( 2.86- 3.01) 18% in, proj. out (#9-out), Preble Shawnee (2-1) 13%
(26%) WWLLWWLL: 2.25 ( 2.24- 2.42) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), West Liberty-Salem (0-2) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 82.3, #481, D5 #69), 50% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 69.8, #562, D5 #82), 23% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 79.1, #502, D5 #73), 46% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 79.5