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Rankings
#72 of 106 in Division 5
#20 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #89 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #37 in D5 (+20 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 14-13 H #513 Covington (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 16 (77%), perf. rating 78
08/29 W 35-14 A #636 Tri-County North (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 8 (66%), perf. rating 87
09/04 W 53-13 H #682 Dixie (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 90
09/12 W 61-0 A #700 Bradford (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 40 (99%), perf. rating 81
09/19 A #231 Preble Shawnee (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/26 H #625 National Trail (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/03 H #637 Twin Valley South (1-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/10 A #600 Mississinawa Valley (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/17 H #330 Ansonia (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/24 A #271 Tri-Village (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 29 (3%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
9.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
58% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.22 ( 9.80-20.40) 99% in, 74% home, 15% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 15%
Lose: 9.35 ( 3.40-17.10) 56% in, 8% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Miami East (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 15.90 (14.70-17.60) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#9), bye 29%
(13%) 8W: 12.40 (11.05-14.85) 99% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
(64%) 7W: 9.40 ( 8.00-12.60) 64% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 17%
(17%) 6W: 7.40 ( 5.80-10.35) 12% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami East (3-1) 21%
( 3%) 5W: 5.65 ( 4.40- 7.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWLL: 12.90 (11.60-14.55) 100% in, 73% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Waynesville (1-3) 12%
( 3%) LWWWLW: 12.55 (11.15-14.55) 99% in, 59% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 18%
( 8%) LWWWWL: 12.35 (11.05-14.05) 99% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
(62%) LWWWLL: 9.40 ( 8.00-11.15) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 17%
( 4%) LLWWLL: 7.65 ( 6.25- 9.60) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami East (3-1) 18%
( 3%) LWLWLL: 7.65 ( 5.90- 9.85) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami East (3-1) 28%
(11%) LWWLLL: 7.25 ( 5.80- 9.20) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami East (3-1) 20%
( 1%) LLWLLL: 5.55 ( 4.40- 7.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 80.8, #489, D5 #72), 58% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 3 (3-0, 75.3, #530, D5 #79), 41% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 75.9, #536, D5 #80), 49% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 69.8, #560, D5 #85), 25% (bubble if 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 74.6, #538, D5 #80), 35% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 79.8