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Rankings
#15 of 107 in Division 7
#7 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #61 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #19 in D7 (+150 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 36-6 H #450 Riverside (DeGraff) (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 128
08/29 L 34-8 A #231 Preble Shawnee (4-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 81
09/05 W 54-19 H #625 National Trail (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 35 (97%), perf. rating 106
09/12 W 52-6 A #636 Tri-County North (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 37 (99%), perf. rating 118
09/19 H #271 Tri-Village (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/26 A #637 Twin Valley South (1-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/03 A #700 Bradford (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/10 H #682 Dixie (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 48 (99%)
10/17 A #489 Arcanum (4-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/24 H #600 Mississinawa Valley (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 35 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
13.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 30% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.95 ( 9.90-19.35) 100% in, 99% home, 74% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#10), bye 74%
Lose: 13.35 ( 6.80-15.50) 99% in, 89% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Cedarville (2-2) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
(32%) 9W: 17.15 (15.25-19.35) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 80%
(57%) 8W: 13.65 (11.90-17.70) 100% in, 98% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Cedarville (2-2) 17%
(10%) 7W: 10.70 ( 8.90-15.75) 100% in, 53% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), Notre Dame (4-0) 18%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(32%) WWWWWW: 17.15 (15.25-19.35) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 80%
( 2%) WWWWLW: 14.05 (12.30-15.55) 100% in, 98% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#9), Riverside (DeGraff) (2-2) 16%
(53%) LWWWWW: 13.55 (11.90-15.50) 100% in, 98% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Cedarville (2-2) 17%
( 1%) LWWWWL: 11.25 ( 9.85-12.70) 100% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Cedarville (2-2) 15%
( 8%) LWWWLW: 10.35 ( 8.90-12.10) 100% in, 46% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Notre Dame (4-0) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 105.0, #330, D7 #15), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 30% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 105.8, #329, D7 #14), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 7-3), 29% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 103.3, #333, D7 #17), likely in, 89% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 119.0, #218, D7 #9), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 7-3), 66% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 116.3, #233, D7 #9), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 90% home (maybe if 6-4), 61% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 114.6