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Rankings
#103 of 107 in Division 6
#25 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #83 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #75 in D6 (-296 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 28-0 H #691 New Miami (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 10 (68%), perf. rating 55
08/28 W 27-26 A #677 Mississinawa Valley (0-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 32
09/04 L 47-7 H #473 Arcanum (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 31 (4%), perf. rating 22
09/11 A #441 Preble Shawnee (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 39 (1%)
09/18 H #547 National Trail (1-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/25 A #602 Tri-County North (1-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/02 A #257 Tri-Village (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/09 H #205 Ansonia (3-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/16 H #689 Twin Valley South (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/23 A #647 Bradford (2-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 9 (28%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
1.76 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.68 ( 3.39-14.43) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Lose: 2.17 ( 0.70-12.14) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 7.30 ( 6.54-11.08) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 7%) 5W: 5.07 ( 4.30- 8.69) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(29%) 4W: 3.19 ( 2.47- 7.22) out, proj. out
(50%) 3W: 1.76 ( 1.41- 5.79) out, proj. out
(12%) 2W: 1.41 ( 0.70- 3.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWLLWW: 6.95 ( 6.54- 8.32) out
( 4%) LLWLLWW: 4.71 ( 4.35- 6.39) out
( 2%) LWLLLWL: 3.95 ( 2.88- 5.38) out
( 4%) LLWLLWL: 3.64 ( 2.93- 4.92) out
(22%) LLLLLWW: 2.83 ( 2.47- 4.92) out
( 2%) LLLLLLW: 2.22 ( 1.76- 3.75) out
(48%) LLLLLWL: 1.76 ( 1.41- 3.45) out
(12%) LLLLLLL: 1.41 ( 0.70- 3.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 36.2, #659, D6 #103), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (2-0, 43.0, #649, D6 #102), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 42.6, #652, D6 #100), 2% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 32.8, #676, D6 #104), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 34.0