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Rankings
#64 of 106 in Division 5
#14 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #93 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D5 (-131 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 20-13 H #590 Madison (Middletown) (0-8) D5 R20, pick: W by 30 (92%), perf. rating 70
08/28 L 40-8 A #299 Ansonia (7-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 64
09/03 W 52-0 A #693 New Miami (0-7) D7 R28, pick: W by 47 (99%), perf. rating 75
09/11 W 60-19 H #672 Dixie (2-6) D6 R24, pick: W by 39 (99%), perf. rating 93
09/18 L 45-14 A #347 Arcanum (6-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 4 (40%), perf. rating 59
09/25 W 44-0 H #655 Bradford (2-6) D7 R28, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 101
10/02 W 62-6 A #684 Mississinawa Valley (0-7) D7 R28, pick: W by 38 (99%), perf. rating 89
10/09 W 48-27 H #527 Tri-County North (4-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 3 (57%), perf. rating 105
10/16 A #281 Tri-Village (8-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/23 H #601 National Trail (4-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 25 (95%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
8.96 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#11 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
78% (likely needs 7-3), 4% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.10 (10.48-14.06) 100% in, 97% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#11), Carlisle (4-4) 21%
Lose: 8.96 ( 6.34-10.23) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Summit Country Day (4-3) 30%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 8W: 13.10 (12.34-14.06) 100% in, 98% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Carlisle (4-4) 21%
(92%) 7W: 8.96 ( 8.21-11.34) 81% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Summit Country Day (4-3) 30%
( 4%) 6W: 6.74 ( 6.34- 7.60) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WW: 13.10 (12.34-14.06) 100% in, 98% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Carlisle (4-4) 21%
(92%) LW: 8.96 ( 8.21-10.23) 81% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Summit Country Day (4-3) 30%
( 4%) LL: 6.74 ( 6.34- 7.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 80.5, #501, D5 #75), 21% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 6 (4-2, 78.4, #506, D5 #76), 28% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 5 (3-2, 76.9, #516, D5 #79), 17% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 85.7, #459, D5 #64), 65% (bubble if 7-3), 27% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 88.7, #441, D5 #57), 78% (bubble if 7-3), 43% home (maybe if 8-2), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 90.5, #424, D5 #57), 76% (bubble if 7-3), 42% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 101.4, #359, D5 #44), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 74% home (maybe if 7-3), 36% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 109.5, #285, D5 #35), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 76% home (maybe if 7-3), 40% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 108.2