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Rankings
#75 of 106 in Division 5
#16 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #93 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #51 in D5 (-146 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 20-13 H #587 Madison (Middletown) (0-7) D5 R20, pick: W by 30 (92%), perf. rating 70
08/28 L 40-8 A #280 Ansonia (6-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 66
09/03 W 52-0 A #693 New Miami (0-7) D7 R28, pick: W by 47 (99%), perf. rating 75
09/11 W 60-19 H #674 Dixie (2-5) D6 R24, pick: W by 39 (99%), perf. rating 92
09/18 L 45-14 A #351 Arcanum (6-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 4 (40%), perf. rating 58
09/25 W 44-0 H #653 Bradford (2-5) D7 R28, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 100
10/02 W 62-6 A #686 Mississinawa Valley (0-7) D7 R28, pick: W by 38 (99%), perf. rating 89
10/09 H #505 Tri-County North (4-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/16 A #260 Tri-Village (7-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/23 H #602 National Trail (3-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
8.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
20% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.90 ( 6.30-13.95) 34% in, 3% home, proj. out (#5-out), Waynesville (5-2) 28%
Lose: 6.25 ( 3.65-11.25) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 12.75 (11.95-13.95) 100% in, 81% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Carlisle (4-3) 25%
(53%) 7W: 8.90 ( 7.85-11.25) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Waynesville (5-2) 30%
(40%) 6W: 6.25 ( 5.50- 8.60) out, proj. out
( 5%) 5W: 4.05 ( 3.65- 5.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWW: 12.75 (11.95-13.95) 100% in, 81% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Carlisle (4-3) 25%
(53%) WLW: 8.90 ( 7.85-10.15) 34% in, proj. out (#9-out), Waynesville (5-2) 30%
( 3%) WLL: 6.70 ( 6.30- 7.50) out
(37%) LLW: 6.25 ( 5.50- 7.40) out
( 5%) LLL: 4.05 ( 3.65- 5.50) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 80.5, #501, D5 #75), 20% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 6 (4-2, 78.4, #506, D5 #76), 28% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 5 (3-2, 76.9, #516, D5 #79), 17% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 85.7, #459, D5 #64), 65% (bubble if 7-3), 27% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 88.7, #441, D5 #57), 78% (bubble if 7-3), 43% home (maybe if 8-2), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 90.5, #424, D5 #57), 76% (bubble if 7-3), 42% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 101.4, #359, D5 #44), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 74% home (maybe if 7-3), 36% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 109.5, #285, D5 #35), 92% (bubble if 6-4), 76% home (maybe if 7-3), 40% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 108.2