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Rankings
#23 of 106 in Division 5
#3 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #102 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #23 in D5 (+115 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 35-18 A #514 Madison (Middletown) (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 17 (78%), perf. rating 105
08/29 W 34-8 H #330 Ansonia (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 142
09/05 W 56-12 H #637 Twin Valley South (1-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 45 (99%), perf. rating 114
09/12 W 51-7 A #682 Dixie (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 97
09/19 H #489 Arcanum (4-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/26 A #700 Bradford (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/03 H #600 Mississinawa Valley (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/09 A #636 Tri-County North (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/17 H #271 Tri-Village (4-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/24 A #625 National Trail (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 41 (99%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
18.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 69% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.80 (11.80-20.95) 100% in, 99% home, 71% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#11), bye 71%
Lose: 12.52 (10.05-17.25) 98% in, 63% home, 12% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
(63%) 10W: 18.90 (18.55-20.95) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
(34%) 9W: 15.35 (14.75-19.55) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 29%
( 4%) 8W: 12.85 (11.35-16.80) 99% in, 70% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 13%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(63%) WWWWWW: 18.90 (18.55-20.95) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
( 1%) LWWWWW: 15.80 (14.80-17.25) 100% in, 97% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#10), bye 32%
(31%) WWWWLW: 15.25 (14.75-17.75) 100% in, 99% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 26%
( 2%) LWWWLW: 12.30 (11.35-14.30) 99% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 117.8, #231, D5 #23), likely in and likely home, 69% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 123.4, #198, D5 #19), appears locked in and likely home, 83% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 122.9, #201, D5 #19), likely in and likely home, 73% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 114.8, #252, D5 #26), 98% (likely in at 7-3 or better), 86% home (maybe if 8-2), 50% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 112.2, #257, D5 #28), 91% (bubble if 6-4), 76% home (maybe if 7-3), 44% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 115.4