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Rankings
#76 of 103 in Division 7
#17 of 25 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #46 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D7 (-66 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 41-7 H #394 Wickliffe (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 48 (1%), perf. rating 43
08/28 W 28-8 A #689 Twin Valley South (0-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 51
09/04 W 34-12 H #677 Mississinawa Valley (0-3) D7 R28, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 59
09/11 A #473 Arcanum (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/18 H #602 Tri-County North (1-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 13 (21%)
09/25 A #441 Preble Shawnee (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/02 A #205 Ansonia (3-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/09 H #257 Tri-Village (3-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 46 (1%)
10/16 A #547 National Trail (1-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/23 H #659 Dixie (2-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.53 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
22% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.84 ( 2.99-14.79) 78% in, 26% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 13%
Lose: 2.53 ( 1.06-12.86) 21% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Fort Loramie (2-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 9.54 ( 9.03-12.86) 100% in, 94% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Upper Scioto Valley (2-1) 15%
( 4%) 5W: 6.85 ( 6.34-10.42) 99% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 15%
(21%) 4W: 4.46 ( 4.41- 8.54) 79% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Fort Loramie (2-1) 17%
(48%) 3W: 2.53 ( 2.53- 6.25) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (2-1) 21%
(27%) 2W: 1.06 ( 1.06- 2.94) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWLLLW: 7.26 ( 6.80- 8.58) 100% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Waynesfield-Goshen (1-2) 20%
( 1%) WWLLLLW: 6.80 ( 6.34- 8.99) 99% in, 31% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 16%
( 2%) LWLLLWW: 6.75 ( 6.65- 8.18) 99% in, 32% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 18%
( 3%) LLLLLWW: 4.77 ( 4.41- 6.45) 68% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Fort Loramie (2-1) 17%
(14%) LWLLLLW: 4.46 ( 4.41- 5.84) 80% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-2) 17%
( 3%) LWLLLLL: 2.99 ( 2.58- 4.62) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Fort Loramie (2-1) 20%
(43%) LLLLLLW: 2.53 ( 2.53- 4.26) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Riverside (DeGraff) (2-1) 23%
(27%) LLLLLLL: 1.06 ( 1.06- 2.94) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 43.2, #647, D7 #76), 22% (bubble if 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 35.4, #662, D7 #80), 12% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 22.4, #687, D7 #94), 3% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 16.7, #693, D7 #97), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 0-10
Last season 12.6