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Rankings
#61 of 107 in Division 7
#16 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #60 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D7 (-192 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 26-6 H #573 Waynesfield-Goshen (2-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 30 (8%), perf. rating 36
08/29 W 34-3 A #682 Dixie (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 80
09/04 W 45-0 H #700 Bradford (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 29 (95%), perf. rating 77
09/12 W 20-13 A #625 National Trail (0-4) D6 R24, pick: L by 7 (34%), perf. rating 68
09/19 H #637 Twin Valley South (1-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 10 (73%)
09/26 A #271 Tri-Village (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/03 A #231 Preble Shawnee (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/10 H #489 Arcanum (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/17 H #636 Tri-County North (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/24 A #330 Ansonia (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 35 (1%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
5.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
19% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.55 ( 3.65-15.60) 24% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 17%
Lose: 3.70 ( 2.25-10.65) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 11.60 (11.10-12.70) 100% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), New Bremen (4-0) 18%
(12%) 6W: 8.30 ( 8.05-10.65) 87% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 18%
(45%) 5W: 5.55 ( 5.40- 9.25) 15% in, proj. out (#9-out), Ansonia (3-1) 17%
(30%) 4W: 4.05 ( 3.65- 6.85) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(12%) 3W: 2.60 ( 2.25- 4.10) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(11%) WLLWWL: 8.25 ( 8.10- 9.50) 86% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 19%
( 2%) WLLWLL: 6.75 ( 6.35- 7.85) 41% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 21%
( 1%) LLLWWL: 6.75 ( 6.00- 8.00) 39% in, proj. out (#9-out), Ansonia (3-1) 31%
(41%) WLLLWL: 5.55 ( 5.40- 6.85) 13% in, proj. out (#10-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 17%
(17%) WLLLLL: 4.05 ( 3.65- 5.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Ansonia (3-1) 50%
(12%) LLLLWL: 4.05 ( 3.65- 5.35) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 33%
(12%) LLLLLL: 2.60 ( 2.25- 4.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 60.9, #600, D7 #61), 19% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 54.9, #620, D7 #70), 12% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 53.0, #628, D7 #68), 14% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 45.0, #658, D7 #78), 7% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 43.6, #663, D7 #83), 8% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 45.1