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Rankings
#88 of 107 in Division 6
#19 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #67 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #87 in D6 (-560 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 42-6 A #336 Carlisle (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 27 (11%), perf. rating 53
08/29 L 42-0 H #271 Tri-Village (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 33 (5%), perf. rating 48
09/05 L 54-19 A #330 Ansonia (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 35 (3%), perf. rating 55
09/12 L 20-13 H #600 Mississinawa Valley (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 7 (66%), perf. rating 48
09/19 H #682 Dixie (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 24 (93%)
09/26 A #489 Arcanum (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 25 (6%)
10/03 H #636 Tri-County North (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/10 A #637 Twin Valley South (1-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/17 A #700 Bradford (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/24 H #231 Preble Shawnee (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 41 (1%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.55 ( 0.40-10.20) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 16%
Lose: 1.05 ( 0.00- 6.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 5W: 6.35 ( 5.85- 8.70) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 17%
(33%) 4W: 3.65 ( 3.55- 8.05) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(35%) 3W: 2.25 ( 2.10- 5.40) out, proj. out
(24%) 2W: 1.10 ( 1.05- 4.30) out, proj. out
( 4%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 3.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWWL: 6.30 ( 5.85- 7.45) 58% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 19%
( 1%) WWWLWL: 4.85 ( 4.10- 5.90) 5% in, proj. out (#12-out), Anna (3-1) 17%
(31%) WLWWWL: 3.65 ( 3.55- 5.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Deer Park (4-0) 40%
( 1%) LLWWWL: 2.90 ( 2.10- 4.00) out
(19%) WLWLWL: 2.50 ( 2.15- 3.70) out
(13%) WLLWWL: 2.20 ( 2.15- 3.70) out
(20%) WLLLWL: 1.10 ( 1.10- 2.20) out
( 3%) LLLLWL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 1.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 55.7, #625, D6 #88), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 60.2, #604, D6 #81), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 59.5, #604, D6 #84), 22% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 64.1, #590, D6 #80), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 69.1, #563, D6 #73), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 65.1