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Rankings
#71 of 107 in Division 7
#19 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #53 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D7 (-218 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 35-6 H #550 Bethel (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 8 (64%), perf. rating 27
08/29 W 42-8 A #700 Bradford (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 69
09/05 L 56-12 A #231 Preble Shawnee (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 45 (1%), perf. rating 57
09/12 L 55-0 H #271 Tri-Village (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 38 (1%), perf. rating 48
09/19 A #600 Mississinawa Valley (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/26 H #330 Ansonia (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/03 A #489 Arcanum (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/10 H #625 National Trail (0-4) D6 R24, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/17 H #682 Dixie (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/24 A #636 Tri-County North (0-4) D7 R28, pick: L by 2 (44%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.50 ( 1.85-12.15) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 17%
Lose: 2.20 ( 0.35- 9.85) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 8.30 ( 8.05- 9.85) 85% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Ansonia (3-1) 21%
(12%) 5W: 5.60 ( 5.50- 7.65) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 17%
(24%) 4W: 4.00 ( 3.65- 6.05) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(32%) 3W: 2.30 ( 2.15- 4.85) out, proj. out
(25%) 2W: 1.10 ( 1.05- 3.10) out, proj. out
( 5%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 1.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLWWWW: 8.30 ( 8.20- 9.20) 85% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), Ansonia (3-1) 23%
( 9%) WLLWWW: 5.60 ( 5.50- 6.90) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) 20%
( 5%) WLLWWL: 4.10 ( 3.75- 5.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Eastern (Beaver) (4-0) 33%
(13%) LLLWWW: 3.75 ( 3.65- 4.95) out
(14%) LLLWWL: 2.30 ( 2.25- 3.50) out
(12%) LLLLWW: 2.20 ( 2.15- 3.35) out
(22%) LLLLWL: 1.10 ( 1.10- 2.00) out
( 5%) LLLLLL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 1.50) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 53.1, #637, D7 #71), 3% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 57.2, #616, D7 #66), 11% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 56.3, #614, D7 #63), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 57.8, #616, D7 #66), 16% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home, proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 75.0, #535, D7 #43), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 68.1