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Region 28 playoff probabilities
Region 28 seeding probabilities
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Rankings
#77 of 105 in Division 7
#20 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #60 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #103 in D7 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #670 Troy Christian (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 10 (68%)
08/28 H #694 Bradford (0-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 29 (93%)
09/04 H #285 Preble Shawnee (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 41 (1%)
09/11 A #203 Tri-Village (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 47 (1%)
09/18 H #629 Mississinawa Valley (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/25 A #337 Ansonia (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/02 H #502 Arcanum (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 26 (5%)
10/09 A #586 National Trail (0-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/16 A #677 Dixie (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/23 H #608 Tri-County North (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 9 (28%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
4.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
22% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.60 ( 0.40-21.60) 28% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), New Bremen (0-0) 8%
Lose: 2.00 ( 0.00-16.90) 8% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), New Bremen (0-0) 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 13.25 (11.20-17.30) 100% in, 99% home, 28% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 28%
( 5%) 7W: 10.25 ( 8.10-14.75) 99% in, 66% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), New Bremen (0-0) 8%
(10%) 6W: 7.75 ( 6.00-12.55) 83% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), New Bremen (0-0) 8%
(17%) 5W: 5.70 ( 4.00-11.15) 32% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Ansonia (0-0) 9%
(20%) 4W: 4.10 ( 2.50- 8.80) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Ansonia (0-0) 14%
(20%) 3W: 2.70 ( 1.45- 8.35) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(15%) 2W: 1.60 ( 0.75- 6.25) out, proj. out
( 8%) 1W: 0.70 ( 0.35- 3.60) out, proj. out
( 3%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
New Bremen (0-0) 8%
Ridgemont (0-0) 7%
Ansonia (0-0) 7%
Minster (0-0) 7%
Lehman Catholic (0-0) 7%
Most likely second round opponents
Marion Local (0-0) 21%
Cincinnati Country Day (0-0) 15%
Ansonia (0-0) 13%
Lehman Catholic (0-0) 8%
New Bremen (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 59.7, #607, D7 #60), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 42.9