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Rankings
#31 of 72 in Division 1
#9 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #16 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D1 (-118 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 38-20 H #33 Badin (4-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 131
08/29 W 37-7 A #300 Sycamore (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 156
09/05 L 38-6 H #21 Lakota West (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 23 (10%), perf. rating 119
09/12 L 31-27 A #51 Lakota East (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 14 (20%), perf. rating 147
09/19 H #78 Mason (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/26 A #132 Oak Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/03 A #12 Princeton (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/10 H #97 Fairfield (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/17 A #56 Middletown (4-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/24 H #310 Colerain (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
77% (bubble if 3-7), 21% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.65 ( 3.25-24.00) 95% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Mason (2-2) 37%
Lose: 5.15 ( 0.65-19.45) 58% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Lakota East (3-1) 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 21.40 (20.75-24.00) 100% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 17%
(14%) 6W: 16.20 (15.55-20.15) 100% in, 81% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Mason (2-2) 48%
(24%) 5W: 11.65 (11.00-16.25) 100% in, 33% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Mason (2-2) 44%
(25%) 4W: 8.40 ( 7.10-13.65) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 25%
(21%) 3W: 5.15 ( 3.90- 9.75) 58% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 26%
(13%) 2W: 1.95 ( 1.95- 7.15) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 1%) 1W: 0.65 ( 0.65- 2.60) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 21.40 (20.75-24.00) 100% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 17%
(13%) WWLWWW: 16.20 (15.55-19.45) 100% in, 80% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Mason (2-2) 49%
(13%) WWLWLW: 11.00 (11.00-14.90) 100% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Mason (2-2) 56%
( 6%) WWLLLW: 8.40 ( 7.75-11.00) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lakota East (3-1) 24%
( 8%) LWLWLW: 7.10 ( 7.10-11.65) 99% in, proj. #10 (#9-out), Mason (2-2) 28%
( 8%) LWLLLW: 4.50 ( 4.50- 6.45) 46% in, proj. out (#10-out), Winton Woods (3-1) 28%
(11%) LLLLLW: 1.95 ( 1.95- 3.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Elder (4-0) 50%
( 1%) LLLLLL: 0.65 ( 0.65- 2.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 143.3, #88, D1 #31), 77% (bubble if 3-7), 21% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #9 at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 141.2, #96, D1 #33), 72% (bubble if 3-7), 25% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 147.3, #73, D1 #25), 84% (bubble if 3-7), 39% home (maybe if 5-5), 8% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 144.4, #79, D1 #32), 74% (bubble if 3-7), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 159.9, #30, D1 #13), 92% (bubble if 3-7), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 162.4