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Rankings
#4 of 107 in Division 3
#1 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #45 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #9 in D3 (+273 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-0 A #96 Bellbrook (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 175
08/29 W 40-7 H #261 Piqua (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 38 (97%), perf. rating 162
09/05 W 55-7 H #287 Fairborn (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 37 (98%), perf. rating 171
09/12 W 41-6 A #290 Stebbins (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 36 (98%), perf. rating 164
09/19 A #228 Butler (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/25 H #494 Sidney (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/03 A #122 Xenia (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/10 H #486 Greenville (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/17 H #105 Troy (3-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/24 A #557 West Carrollton (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 49 (99%)
Regular season projections
10-0 record
33.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#1 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and home, likely bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 33.90 (19.80-34.70) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
Lose: 29.15 (17.80-31.05) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#8), bye 93%
Based on eventual number of wins
(82%) 10W: 33.95 (31.15-34.70) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(16%) 9W: 28.60 (26.30-33.95) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) 8W: 23.75 (21.00-32.15) 100% home, 93% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 93%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(82%) WWWWWW: 33.95 (31.15-34.70) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 2%) LWWWWW: 29.25 (28.00-31.05) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 6%) WWLWWW: 28.55 (26.85-30.30) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 6%) WWWWLW: 28.55 (26.30-30.40) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 1%) WWLWLW: 23.15 (21.00-25.00) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 90%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 162.2, #30, D3 #4), appears locked in and home, likely bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 3 (3-0, 159.3, #36, D3 #4), appears locked in and likely home, 98% bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 161.6, #29, D3 #4), likely in and likely home, likely bye, proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 155.6, #41, D3 #5), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 7-3), 91% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 0 (0-0, 144.5, #79, D3 #13), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 84% home (maybe if 6-4), 63% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 147.9