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Rankings
#8 of 104 in Division 3
#3 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #53 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D3 (-15 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-14 H #58 Bellbrook (2-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (88%), perf. rating 128
08/28 W 49-0 A #401 Piqua (0-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 30 (93%), perf. rating 159
09/04 A #282 Fairborn (2-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 27 (93%)
09/11 H #283 Stebbins (1-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 30 (96%)
09/18 H #140 Butler (2-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 16 (84%)
09/25 A #546 Sidney (0-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 46 (99%)
10/02 H #136 Xenia (0-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/09 A #457 Greenville (1-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/16 A #101 Troy (1-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/23 H #606 West Carrollton (0-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 49 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
6.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 93% home (maybe if 6-4), 69% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.56 ( 2.82- 7.58) 99% in, 95% home, 72% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 72%
Lose: 5.37 ( 1.98- 6.80) 96% in, 62% home, 21% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
(43%) 9W: 7.56 ( 7.55- 7.58) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(31%) 8W: 6.50 ( 6.42- 7.02) 100% home, 81% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 81%
(17%) 7W: 5.48 ( 5.37- 6.06) 100% in, 98% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Archbishop McNicholas (1-1) 14%
( 7%) 6W: 4.53 ( 4.41- 5.01) 100% in, 37% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Hughes (3-0) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(43%) WWWWWWWW: 7.56 ( 7.55- 7.58) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 6%) WWWWLWWW: 6.55 ( 6.54- 6.74) 100% home, 85% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 85%
(17%) WWWWWWLW: 6.49 ( 6.48- 6.67) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 79%
( 6%) WWLWWWWW: 6.45 ( 6.42- 6.68) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#6), bye 79%
( 6%) WWWWLWLW: 5.48 ( 5.47- 5.77) 100% in, 98% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Miami Trace (1-1) 15%
( 5%) WWLWWWLW: 5.43 ( 5.42- 5.61) 100% in, 97% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Archbishop McNicholas (1-1) 15%
( 4%) WWLWLWLW: 4.48 ( 4.46- 4.73) 100% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), Hughes (3-0) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 145.0, #75, D3 #8), likely in, 92% home (maybe if 6-4), 56% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 140.3, #91, D3 #12), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 75% home (likely needs 7-3), 38% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 156.8, #34, D3 #3), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 6-4), 87% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 160.4