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Rankings
#45 of 104 in Division 2
#11 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #55 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #55 in D2 (-228 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 21-20 H #132 Oak Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 14 (26%), perf. rating 131
08/29 L 38-0 A #59 Springboro (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 29 (7%), perf. rating 95
09/05 L 32-18 A #33 Badin (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 31 (4%), perf. rating 141
09/11 W 28-14 A #321 Bishop Fenwick (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 15 (81%), perf. rating 129
09/19 H #371 Chaminade Julienne (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (95%)
09/26 A #96 Bellbrook (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/03 H #309 Ross (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/10 H #107 Valley View (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/17 A #353 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/24 H #412 Monroe (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 29 (97%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
10.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
51% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.40 ( 3.80-20.35) 52% in, 7% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 20%
Lose: 7.90 ( 2.20-17.65) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Xenia (3-1) 27%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 7W: 18.25 (16.20-20.35) 100% in, 83% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Lima Senior (2-2) 17%
(24%) 6W: 14.30 (11.85-17.65) 99% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 26%
(47%) 5W: 10.00 ( 8.25-14.95) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Xenia (3-1) 28%
(18%) 4W: 7.85 ( 5.45-12.80) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 36%
( 5%) 3W: 6.05 ( 3.80-11.15) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWWWW: 18.25 (16.20-20.35) 100% in, 83% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Lima Senior (2-2) 17%
(16%) WLWWWW: 14.40 (11.85-16.95) 99% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 26%
( 7%) WWWLWW: 13.85 (12.15-15.95) 99% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 26%
(42%) WLWLWW: 10.00 ( 8.25-12.65) 37% in, proj. out (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 30%
( 2%) LLWLWW: 8.45 ( 6.70-10.40) 18% in, proj. out (#11-out), Xenia (3-1) 38%
( 7%) WLWLLW: 8.35 ( 6.10-10.45) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out), Xenia (3-1) 37%
( 6%) WLLLWW: 7.20 ( 5.60- 9.35) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Xenia (3-1) 29%
( 2%) WLLLLW: 6.05 ( 4.95- 7.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 126.3, #178, D2 #45), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (0-3, 126.0, #182, D2 #44), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 123.3, #196, D2 #51), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 124.0, #182, D2 #43), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 119.9, #213, D2 #49), 37% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 119.8