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Rankings
#65 of 107 in Division 3
#15 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #89 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #81 in D3 (-432 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-14 A #441 Madeira (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 10 (68%), perf. rating 131
08/29 W 34-21 A #445 Reading (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 27 (91%), perf. rating 108
09/05 L 42-35 H #244 Kenton Ridge (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 104
09/12 L 34-16 H #276 Miami Trace (4-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 13 (78%), perf. rating 83
09/19 A #540 Bethel-Tate (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 26 (95%)
09/26 A #306 Goshen (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 5 (38%)
10/03 A #448 Western Brown (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/10 H #292 Wilmington (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/17 H #379 New Richmond (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/24 H #172 Clinton-Massie (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
9.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
34% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.00 ( 3.65-22.85) 36% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 14%
Lose: 6.25 ( 2.30-19.20) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 8W: 20.40 (18.05-22.85) 100% in, 97% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#12), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 15%
(17%) 7W: 16.05 (13.70-21.25) 99% in, 21% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Talawanda (4-0) 18%
(25%) 6W: 12.35 ( 9.65-17.85) 45% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Jackson (3-1) 19%
(26%) 5W: 9.00 ( 6.25-14.50) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jackson (3-1) 27%
(18%) 4W: 6.55 ( 4.20-13.05) out, proj. out
( 7%) 3W: 5.45 ( 2.90- 8.60) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWW: 20.40 (18.05-22.85) 100% in, 97% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#12), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 15%
(12%) WWWWWL: 16.00 (13.70-18.55) 99% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Talawanda (4-0) 18%
(12%) WLWWWL: 12.05 ( 9.65-15.45) 36% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jackson (3-1) 20%
( 7%) WWWLWL: 12.05 ( 9.75-14.90) 40% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jackson (3-1) 23%
( 4%) WLWWLL: 9.45 ( 7.50-12.40) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Jackson (3-1) 36%
(14%) WLWLWL: 8.45 ( 6.25-12.35) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Archbishop Alter (2-2) 50%
(11%) WLWLLL: 6.10 ( 4.20- 9.00) out
( 6%) WLLLLL: 5.45 ( 3.65- 7.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 104.9, #332, D3 #65), 34% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 114.9, #253, D3 #51), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 52% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 121.4, #213, D3 #43), 87% (bubble if 6-4), 65% home (maybe if 7-3), 23% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 120.0, #209, D3 #43), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 52% home (maybe if 8-2), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 110.4, #270, D3 #54), 63% (bubble if 5-5), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 122.9