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Rankings
#54 of 107 in Division 3
#10 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #91 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #25 in D3 (+45 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-21 A #511 Waverly (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 9 (66%), perf. rating 112
08/29 W 15-9 H #292 Wilmington (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 10 (69%), perf. rating 117
09/05 W 7-6 H #470 Logan Elm (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 32 (96%), perf. rating 82
09/12 W 34-16 A #332 Batavia (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 13 (22%), perf. rating 134
09/19 A #448 Western Brown (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 22 (92%)
09/26 H #326 Chillicothe (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 8 (69%)
10/03 A #346 Hillsboro (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/10 A #571 McClain (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/17 H #142 Jackson (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/24 H #325 Washington (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
19.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
95% (bubble if 6-4), 72% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.25 ( 8.95-30.65) 96% in, 75% home, 29% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 30%
Lose: 16.38 ( 8.15-28.70) 78% in, 42% home, 8% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Talawanda (4-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 10W: 27.10 (24.15-30.65) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 99%
(32%) 9W: 22.85 (19.80-28.70) 100% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 54%
(29%) 8W: 19.45 (15.60-24.70) 100% in, 90% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 12%
(19%) 7W: 16.35 (12.65-22.45) 98% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 16%
( 9%) 6W: 13.60 (10.10-18.55) 66% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 15%
( 2%) 5W: 12.00 ( 8.95-15.90) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWW: 27.10 (24.15-30.65) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 99%
(28%) WWWWLW: 22.75 (19.80-27.20) 100% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 51%
( 9%) WWWWLL: 19.55 (15.80-23.10) 100% in, 97% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#10), Archbishop McNicholas (2-2) 13%
( 8%) WLWWLW: 19.45 (16.70-23.20) 100% in, 89% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Chillicothe (2-2) 14%
( 9%) WWLWLW: 19.00 (15.60-22.65) 100% in, 84% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Bellbrook (2-2) 14%
( 7%) WWLWLL: 15.95 (12.65-19.15) 99% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Talawanda (4-0) 16%
( 7%) WLLWLL: 13.32 (10.10-16.45) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 17%
( 2%) LLLWLL: 12.15 ( 9.45-15.30) 24% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jackson (3-1) 20%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 111.7, #276, D3 #54), 95% (bubble if 6-4), 72% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 103.9, #351, D3 #69), 68% (bubble if 6-4), 33% home (maybe if 8-2), 9% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 117.0, #244, D3 #53), 87% (bubble if 6-4), 58% home (maybe if 8-2), 19% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 119.2, #214, D3 #46), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home (maybe if 8-2), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 112.4, #256, D3 #52), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 111.7