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Rankings
#61 of 107 in Division 3
#12 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #93 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D3 (-212 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-14 A #412 Monroe (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 26 (12%), perf. rating 125
08/29 L 41-25 A #346 Hillsboro (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 82
09/05 W 34-6 H #366 Waynesville (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 33 (3%), perf. rating 140
09/12 W 53-19 H #540 Bethel-Tate (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 33 (98%), perf. rating 122
09/19 H #567 Blanchester (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/26 H #332 Batavia (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 5 (62%)
10/03 A #379 New Richmond (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/10 H #172 Clinton-Massie (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/17 A #292 Wilmington (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/24 A #448 Western Brown (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
14.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
62% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.00 ( 5.15-25.55) 62% in, 24% home, 2% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Talawanda (4-0) 14%
Lose: 9.30 ( 3.80-20.80) 25% in, 4% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 9W: 22.30 (19.45-25.55) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 29%
(23%) 8W: 17.95 (15.10-23.30) 99% in, 64% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 18%
(29%) 7W: 14.35 (11.15-19.80) 82% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Talawanda (4-0) 15%
(22%) 6W: 11.40 ( 8.10-16.60) 31% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Jackson (3-1) 20%
(14%) 5W: 9.20 ( 5.15-13.75) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 5%) 4W: 7.80 ( 5.40-10.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWW: 22.30 (19.45-25.55) 100% in, 99% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 29%
(17%) WWWLWW: 17.90 (15.10-21.00) 99% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 18%
( 6%) WLWLWW: 14.35 (11.45-18.20) 79% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Talawanda (4-0) 18%
(15%) WWWLLW: 13.90 (11.15-17.10) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Jackson (3-1) 18%
( 7%) WWLLLW: 11.40 ( 9.00-14.50) 33% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jackson (3-1) 23%
( 8%) WLWLLW: 10.78 ( 8.10-13.55) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jackson (3-1) 23%
( 8%) WLLLLW: 8.45 ( 5.15-12.05) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 43%
( 5%) WLLLLL: 7.80 ( 5.80-10.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Jackson (3-1) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 108.3, #306, D3 #61), 62% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 109.9, #285, D3 #57), 65% (bubble if 6-4), 27% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 89.3, #439, D3 #83), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 95.1, #400, D3 #76), 23% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 75.2, #533, D3 #94), 7% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 74.8