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Rankings
#20 of 105 in Division 4
#4 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #48 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #17 in D4 (+222 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 35-13 H #366 Waynesville (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 17 (78%), perf. rating 131
08/29 W 14-7 A #150 Coldwater (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 8 (34%), perf. rating 144
09/05 L 35-0 A #84 Tri-Valley (3-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 94
09/12 W 49-7 H #567 Blanchester (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 43 (99%), perf. rating 129
09/19 H #412 Monroe (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 30 (97%)
09/26 H #379 New Richmond (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/03 A #292 Wilmington (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 15 (83%)
10/10 A #306 Goshen (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/17 H #448 Western Brown (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/24 A #332 Batavia (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
23.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 91% home (maybe if 7-3), 55% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.15 ( 6.95-26.75) 99% in, 92% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 56%
Lose: 16.95 ( 5.00-22.75) 92% in, 66% home, 16% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), bye 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(59%) 9W: 23.15 (19.90-26.75) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 87%
(27%) 8W: 19.05 (15.55-25.25) 100% in, 97% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 13%
(10%) 7W: 15.50 (11.20-19.95) 100% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Washington (2-2) 16%
( 3%) 6W: 12.45 ( 9.10-18.70) 93% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Brookville (4-0) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(59%) WWWWWW: 23.15 (19.90-26.75) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 87%
( 2%) WLWWWW: 19.95 (17.65-22.85) 100% in, 97% home, 27% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 27%
( 7%) WWWWWL: 19.40 (16.50-23.00) 100% in, 99% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 14%
( 8%) WWWLWW: 18.80 (15.55-22.55) 100% in, 96% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 16%
( 9%) WWLWWW: 18.65 (15.80-23.25) 100% in, 96% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Oakwood (4-0) 14%
( 2%) WWWLWL: 15.28 (12.35-18.85) 100% in, 53% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 22%
( 3%) WWLLWW: 14.70 (11.20-18.05) 100% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Washington (2-2) 20%
( 1%) WWLLWL: 11.65 ( 9.45-15.15) 92% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Brookville (4-0) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 127.4, #172, D4 #20), likely in, 91% home (maybe if 7-3), 55% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 131.2, #150, D4 #18), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 61% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 155.3, #47, D4 #5), appears locked in and likely home, 98% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 148.2, #67, D4 #6), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 80% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 143.8, #83, D4 #8), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 6-4), 60% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Last season 143.8