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Rankings
#46 of 102 in Division 4
#10 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #30 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #71 in D4 (-354 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 20-17 A #328 Waynesville (6-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 27 (89%), perf. rating 103
08/28 L 14-6 H #115 Coldwater (6-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 24 (11%), perf. rating 122
09/04 L 57-28 H #196 Tri-Valley (5-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 78
09/11 W 40-18 A #521 Blanchester (4-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 111
09/18 L 55-34 A #251 Monroe (5-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 2 (55%), perf. rating 86
09/25 L 41-37 A #383 New Richmond (4-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 9 (72%), perf. rating 92
10/02 W 31-28 H #301 Wilmington (4-4) D4 R16, pick: L by 9 (28%), perf. rating 112
10/09 L 27-23 H #191 Goshen (8-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 20 (9%), perf. rating 117
10/16 A #391 Western Brown (2-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/23 H #509 Batavia (1-7) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
29% (bubble if 4-6), no home game
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.50 ( 6.55-10.10) 42% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (7-0) 64%
Lose: 6.85 ( 4.90- 7.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(67%) 4W: 8.50 ( 7.55-10.10) 43% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (7-0) 64%
(31%) 3W: 6.85 ( 5.90- 8.10) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 2W: 5.85 ( 4.90- 6.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(67%) WW: 8.50 ( 7.55-10.10) 43% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (7-0) 64%
( 3%) WL: 7.50 ( 6.55- 8.10) 12% in, proj. out (#11-out), North College Hill (7-0) 68%
(28%) LW: 6.85 ( 5.90- 7.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), North College Hill (7-0) 56%
( 2%) LL: 5.85 ( 4.90- 6.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 104.8, #334, D4 #48), 70% (bubble if 3-7), 4% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 6 (1-5, 104.6, #332, D4 #48), 30% (likely needs 4-6), 3% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (1-4, 108.0, #305, D4 #42), 61% (bubble if 4-6), 18% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 4 (1-3, 118.7, #230, D4 #34), 86% (bubble if 4-6), 54% home (maybe if 5-5), 5% bye, proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 3 (0-3, 119.1, #232, D4 #27), 76% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 128.1, #160, D4 #16), 84% (bubble if 4-6), 69% home (maybe if 6-4), 34% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 123.3, #195, D4 #23), 70% (bubble if 4-6), 51% home (maybe if 6-4), 21% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 135.0, #123, D4 #10), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 78% home (maybe if 6-4), 48% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Last season 132.7