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Rankings
#57 of 107 in Division 3
#11 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #82 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D3 (-180 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 14-10 H #383 Northwest (Cincy) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 29 (91%), perf. rating 102
08/29 L 15-9 A #276 Miami Trace (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 10 (31%), perf. rating 105
09/05 W 30-26 H #408 Mount Healthy (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 98
09/12 W 21-13 A #309 Ross (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 9 (30%), perf. rating 122
09/19 A #326 Chillicothe (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/26 H #448 Western Brown (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/03 H #172 Clinton-Massie (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/10 A #332 Batavia (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/17 H #306 Goshen (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/24 A #379 New Richmond (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
15.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
61% (bubble if 6-4), 28% home (likely needs 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.70 ( 6.55-25.85) 81% in, 44% home, 7% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 13%
Lose: 11.25 ( 4.55-22.30) 36% in, 8% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 9W: 23.00 (20.65-25.85) 100% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 43%
(19%) 8W: 19.00 (16.35-23.25) 100% in, 82% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Bellbrook (2-2) 15%
(23%) 7W: 15.60 (12.25-20.15) 95% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Talawanda (4-0) 16%
(22%) 6W: 12.45 ( 8.65-17.30) 49% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Jackson (3-1) 17%
(17%) 5W: 9.82 ( 7.10-14.85) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 9%) 4W: 7.30 ( 5.10-12.05) out, proj. out
( 2%) 3W: 6.25 ( 4.55- 8.40) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWWWWW: 23.00 (20.65-25.85) 100% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 43%
(13%) WWLWWW: 18.60 (16.35-21.85) 100% in, 81% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Bellbrook (2-2) 16%
( 6%) LWLWWW: 16.05 (14.40-19.35) 99% in, 22% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Talawanda (4-0) 18%
( 5%) WWLLWW: 15.40 (12.70-18.25) 94% in, 10% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 17%
( 5%) WWLWLW: 14.85 (12.25-18.65) 87% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 14%
( 5%) LWLLLW: 9.30 ( 7.10-13.25) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Jackson (3-1) 33%
( 7%) LWLLLL: 6.80 ( 5.10- 9.55) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 6.25 ( 4.55- 8.40) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 109.9, #292, D3 #57), 61% (bubble if 6-4), 28% home (likely needs 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 104.0, #349, D3 #68), 33% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 110.5, #289, D3 #60), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 111.7, #276, D3 #58), 48% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 121.1, #203, D3 #43), 67% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Last season 123.2