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Rankings
#63 of 106 in Division 5
#16 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #41 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #57 in D5 (-183 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 42-14 H #332 Batavia (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 10 (32%), perf. rating 61
08/29 W 27-6 H #514 Madison (Middletown) (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 107
09/05 L 48-6 A #203 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 17 (17%), perf. rating 61
09/12 W 27-0 A #633 Finneytown (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 31 (97%), perf. rating 96
09/19 A #445 Reading (0-4) D4 R16, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/26 H #394 Deer Park (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/03 A #221 Wyoming (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/10 H #80 Indian Hill (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/17 A #357 Taylor (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/24 H #435 Mariemont (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 1 (47%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
14% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.00 ( 2.60-20.90) 23% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Miami East (3-1) 12%
Lose: 3.45 ( 1.65-16.55) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Miami East (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 7W: 15.65 (15.40-18.05) 100% home, 20% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 20%
( 7%) 6W: 11.60 (11.00-16.55) 97% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Greeneview (2-2) 12%
(15%) 5W: 8.70 ( 7.30-14.30) 36% in, 2% home, proj. out (#6-out), Miami East (3-1) 14%
(24%) 4W: 5.90 ( 4.85-10.90) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(29%) 3W: 3.85 ( 2.60- 8.45) out, proj. out
(23%) 2W: 1.65 ( 1.65- 4.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWLLWW: 11.47 (11.00-14.00) 97% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Miami East (3-1) 13%
( 8%) WWLLLW: 8.70 ( 8.10-10.65) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miami East (3-1) 16%
( 5%) WWLLLL: 6.00 ( 5.45- 8.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Carlisle (3-1) 33%
(10%) WLLLLW: 5.30 ( 4.85- 7.25) out
( 5%) LWLLLL: 5.00 ( 4.50- 6.95) out
(11%) LLLLLW: 3.95 ( 3.45- 5.85) out
(11%) WLLLLL: 3.05 ( 2.60- 5.85) out
(23%) LLLLLL: 1.65 ( 1.65- 4.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 87.4, #441, D5 #63), 14% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 91.7, #420, D5 #58), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 98.9, #373, D5 #47), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 23% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 88.8, #448, D5 #63), 32% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 98.4, #367, D5 #43), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 98.5