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Rankings
#58 of 105 in Division 5
#13 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #43 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #93 in D5 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #565 Shroder (0-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 21 (83%)
08/28 A #529 Madison (Middletown) (0-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 15 (77%)
09/04 H #168 Cinc. Hills Christian (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 28 (6%)
09/11 H #599 Finneytown (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 28 (95%)
09/18 H #482 Reading (0-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 11 (75%)
09/25 A #466 Deer Park (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 5 (62%)
10/02 H #170 Wyoming (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/09 A #77 Indian Hill (0-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 39 (1%)
10/16 H #325 Taylor (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/23 A #393 Mariemont (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.97 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
48% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.87 ( 0.50-31.57) 54% in, 33% home, 14% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), bye 26%
Lose: 3.67 ( 0.00-25.61) 15% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 10W: 25.76 (21.42-31.57) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 3%) 9W: 21.98 (15.87-27.23) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#8), bye 98%
( 7%) 8W: 18.35 (12.28-24.15) 100% in, 98% home, 75% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#12), bye 75%
(13%) 7W: 14.77 ( 9.82-20.77) 99% in, 84% home, 22% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 22%
(16%) 6W: 11.69 ( 6.89-19.77) 89% in, 36% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 7%
(17%) 5W: 8.97 ( 4.98-14.72) 47% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 9%
(16%) 4W: 6.65 ( 2.25-12.76) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Carlisle (0-0) 8%
(12%) 3W: 4.63 ( 1.35-10.49) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 8%) 2W: 2.97 ( 0.85- 7.36) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 4%) 1W: 1.31 ( 0.40- 4.44) out, proj. out
( 2%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 5%
Williamsburg (0-0) 5%
Greeneview (0-0) 5%
West Liberty-Salem (0-0) 5%
Most likely second round opponents
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 11%
Brookville (0-0) 10%
Carlisle (0-0) 9%
Graham Local (0-0) 8%
Williamsburg (0-0) 7%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 83.4, #483, D5 #69), 36% (bubble if 7-3), 18% home (maybe if 8-2), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 91.0