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Rankings
#49 of 106 in Division 5
#11 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #50 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #40 in D5 (-78 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 47-8 A #658 Shroder (1-5) D4 R16, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 99
08/28 W 27-0 A #587 Madison (Middletown) (0-7) D5 R20, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 104
09/04 L 24-12 H #180 Cinc. Hills Christian (6-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 106
09/11 W 55-6 H #655 Finneytown (0-6) D6 R24, pick: W by 45 (99%), perf. rating 100
09/18 W 38-14 H #466 Reading (3-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 25 (94%), perf. rating 119
09/25 L 38-14 A #256 Deer Park (7-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 3 (42%), perf. rating 81
10/02 L 41-7 H #118 Wyoming (7-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 33 (2%), perf. rating 83
10/09 A #102 Indian Hill (5-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/16 H #404 Taylor (1-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/23 A #385 Mariemont (3-4) D5 R20, pick: L by 2 (44%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
5.67 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Lose: 5.72 ( 3.74- 9.99) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out), Summit Country Day (4-2) 29%
Based on eventual number of wins
(33%) 6W: 8.06 ( 8.00-10.91) 7% in, proj. out (#9-out), Summit Country Day (4-2) 27%
(41%) 5W: 5.67 ( 5.21- 8.11) out, proj. out
(25%) 4W: 3.74 ( 3.74- 5.27) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(33%) LWW: 8.06 ( 8.00- 9.99) 6% in, proj. out (#9-out), Summit Country Day (4-2) 29%
(13%) LLW: 6.59 ( 6.53- 8.07) out
(28%) LWL: 5.21 ( 5.21- 7.15) out
(25%) LLL: 3.74 ( 3.74- 5.27) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 96.3, #388, D5 #49), 3% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 6 (4-2, 93.8, #403, D5 #50), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 5 (4-1, 99.8, #365, D5 #43), 23% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 4 (3-1, 98.3, #378, D5 #47), 24% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 103.3, #345, D5 #39), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 104.7, #331, D5 #40), 64% (likely needs 6-4), 41% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 101.5, #356, D5 #43), 70% (bubble if 5-5), 48% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 92.3, #424, D5 #58), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 91.0