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Rankings
#46 of 106 in Division 5
#10 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #53 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D5 (-78 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 47-8 A #654 Shroder (1-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 21 (83%), perf. rating 101
08/28 W 27-0 A #590 Madison (Middletown) (0-8) D5 R20, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 104
09/04 L 24-12 H #189 Cinc. Hills Christian (7-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 105
09/11 W 55-6 H #646 Finneytown (0-7) D6 R24, pick: W by 45 (99%), perf. rating 103
09/18 W 38-14 H #475 Reading (3-5) D4 R16, pick: W by 25 (94%), perf. rating 118
09/25 L 38-14 A #257 Deer Park (8-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 3 (42%), perf. rating 81
10/02 L 41-7 H #130 Wyoming (8-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 33 (2%), perf. rating 81
10/09 L 35-0 A #93 Indian Hill (6-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 34 (1%), perf. rating 89
10/16 H #400 Taylor (1-7) D4 R16, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/23 A #381 Mariemont (4-4) D5 R20, pick: L by 3 (42%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
5.21 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.67 ( 5.21- 9.08) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Waynesville (6-2) 33%
Lose: 3.74 ( 3.74- 8.01) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(29%) 6W: 8.06 ( 8.06- 9.08) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out), Waynesville (6-2) 33%
(44%) 5W: 5.21 ( 5.21- 8.01) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(27%) 4W: 3.74 ( 3.74- 5.22) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(29%) WW: 8.06 ( 8.06- 9.08) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out), Waynesville (6-2) 33%
(13%) LW: 6.59 ( 6.59- 8.01) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Arcanum (6-2) 100%
(31%) WL: 5.21 ( 5.21- 6.23) out
(27%) LL: 3.74 ( 3.74- 5.22) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 96.3, #388, D5 #49), 2% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance), proj. out at 5-5
Week 6 (4-2, 93.8, #403, D5 #50), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 5 (4-1, 99.8, #365, D5 #43), 23% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 4 (3-1, 98.3, #378, D5 #47), 24% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 103.3, #345, D5 #39), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 104.7, #331, D5 #40), 64% (likely needs 6-4), 41% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 101.5, #356, D5 #43), 70% (bubble if 5-5), 48% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 92.3, #424, D5 #58), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 91.0