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Rankings
#52 of 100 in Division 2
#14 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #60 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #62 in D2 (-315 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 17-16 A #168 Beavercreek (4-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 128
08/28 L 10-6 H #116 Troy (5-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 128
09/04 L 31-16 H #170 Butler (5-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 102
09/11 W 33-8 A #545 West Carrollton (0-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 42 (99%), perf. rating 111
09/18 W 54-20 A #492 Sidney (1-5) D2 R8, pick: W by 31 (97%), perf. rating 133
09/25 W 16-14 H #358 Piqua (2-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 25 (94%), perf. rating 102
10/02 A #47 Tippecanoe (5-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/09 H #239 Fairborn (4-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/16 H #484 Greenville (1-5) D3 R12, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/23 A #402 Stebbins (2-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
13.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
30% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.40 (11.05-19.70) 91% in, 41% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), West (6-0) 19%
Lose: 13.15 ( 4.60-15.05) 29% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Troy (5-1) 28%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 18.45 (17.80-19.70) 100% in, 55% home, proj. #8 (#6-#12), Talawanda (5-1) 19%
(55%) 6W: 13.25 (13.15-17.90) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Troy (5-1) 28%
(38%) 5W: 9.20 ( 9.10-13.35) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 6%) 4W: 6.90 ( 6.25-11.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWW: 18.45 (17.80-19.70) 100% in, 55% home, proj. #8 (#6-#12), Talawanda (5-1) 19%
(54%) LWWW: 13.25 (13.15-15.05) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Troy (5-1) 28%
( 4%) LWWL: 10.90 ( 9.70-13.35) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Lima Senior (5-1) 40%
(33%) LLWW: 9.15 ( 9.10-11.00) out
( 5%) LLWL: 6.85 ( 6.25- 8.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 119.4, #222, D2 #52), 30% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 5 (2-3, 122.7, #200, D2 #50), 21% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (1-3, 123.6, #190, D2 #48), 37% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (0-3, 126.6, #168, D2 #46), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 132.1, #137, D2 #41), 71% (bubble if 6-4), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 135.8, #118, D2 #37), 78% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 140.1, #93, D2 #28), 82% (bubble if 6-4), 67% home (maybe if 7-3), 40% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Last season 142.7