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Rankings
#36 of 104 in Division 2
#8 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #70 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #33 in D2 (+8 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 27-18 H #138 Beavercreek (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 18 (80%), perf. rating 145
08/29 L 24-14 A #105 Troy (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 127
09/05 W 20-0 A #228 Butler (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 150
09/12 W 67-6 H #557 West Carrollton (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 44 (99%), perf. rating 131
09/19 H #494 Sidney (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 41 (99%)
09/26 A #261 Piqua (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/03 H #30 Tippecanoe (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/10 A #287 Fairborn (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/17 A #486 Greenville (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/24 H #290 Stebbins (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
21.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.15 ( 8.30-30.95) 99% in, 94% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 26%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 9W: 27.10 (25.75-30.95) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
(70%) 8W: 21.75 (20.50-28.60) 100% home, 27% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 27%
(19%) 7W: 17.65 (15.80-22.70) 100% in, 86% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), La Salle (3-1) 12%
( 4%) 6W: 14.20 (12.25-18.45) 100% in, 22% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 18%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWW: 27.10 (25.75-30.95) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
(69%) WWLWWW: 21.75 (20.50-25.65) 100% home, 26% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 26%
( 4%) WWLWWL: 17.70 (16.40-21.50) 100% in, 94% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Stebbins (2-2) 19%
( 7%) WLLWWW: 17.65 (16.35-21.90) 100% in, 83% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), La Salle (3-1) 14%
( 6%) WWLLWW: 17.60 (15.80-21.55) 100% in, 83% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), La Salle (3-1) 13%
( 1%) WLLLWW: 14.10 (12.25-17.35) 100% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 20%
( 1%) WLLWWL: 14.10 (12.85-17.85) 100% in, 15% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), Piqua (1-3) 21%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 136.8, #122, D2 #36), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 134.9, #129, D2 #34), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 84% home (maybe if 7-3), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 124.7, #185, D2 #45), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 125.6, #175, D2 #40), 76% (bubble if 6-4), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 127.1, #166, D2 #40), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home (maybe if 7-3), 31% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 134.5