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Rankings
#16 of 104 in Division 2
#6 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #62 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #9 in D2 (+297 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-14 A #115 Loveland (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 14 (74%), perf. rating 171
08/29 L 21-20 A East Central IN (3-1) D2
09/05 W 28-21 H #138 Beavercreek (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 33 (97%), perf. rating 142
09/12 W 48-8 H #464 Western Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 46 (99%), perf. rating 141
09/19 H #309 Ross (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 34 (98%)
09/26 A #203 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/03 A #408 Mount Healthy (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/10 A #171 Talawanda (4-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/17 H #77 DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/24 A #383 Northwest (Cincy) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 37 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
27.77 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#2 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 84% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 26.46 (10.28-32.83) 99% in, 99% home, 85% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 85%
Lose: 21.14 ( 8.56-28.34) 98% in, 88% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#2-out), bye 40%
Based on eventual number of wins
(58%) 9W: 27.77 (22.27-32.83) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 99%
(31%) 8W: 23.69 (18.74-29.65) 100% home, 81% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 81%
( 8%) 7W: 19.40 (14.96-24.81) 100% in, 98% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 17%
( 2%) 6W: 15.32 (11.63-21.43) 99% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Butler (3-1) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(58%) WWWWWW: 27.77 (22.27-32.83) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 99%
(23%) WWWWLW: 23.89 (19.45-28.34) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 84%
( 2%) WLWWWW: 23.79 (20.10-27.93) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 82%
( 4%) WWWLWW: 22.43 (18.74-27.02) 100% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 62%
( 2%) WLWWLW: 19.65 (16.57-23.80) 100% in, 99% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 14%
( 4%) WWWLLW: 18.59 (14.96-23.54) 100% in, 96% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Butler (3-1) 15%
( 1%) WLWLLW: 14.26 (11.63-17.64) 99% in, 32% home, proj. #9 (#7-out), Butler (3-1) 16%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 150.7, #50, D2 #16), likely in and likely home, 84% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 148.4, #68, D2 #20), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 67% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 154.1, #49, D2 #17), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 59% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 152.7, #51, D2 #16), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 72% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 147.9, #69, D2 #17), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 82% home (maybe if 6-4), 48% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 149.1