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Rankings
#14 of 100 in Division 2
#3 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #34 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #9 in D2 (+433 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-0 A #186 Milford (1-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 27 (89%), perf. rating 179
08/28 W 28-0 A #105 Archbishop McNicholas (1-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 180
09/04 W 33-28 A #146 Beavercreek (2-1) D1 R2, pick: W by 31 (96%), perf. rating 140
09/11 H #75 Withrow (2-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 17 (84%)
09/18 A #332 Ross (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 38 (99%)
09/25 H East Central IN (2-1) D2
10/02 H #365 Mount Healthy (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 42 (99%)
10/09 H #113 Talawanda (3-0) D2 R8, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/16 A #57 La Salle (2-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/23 H #309 Northwest (Cincy) (3-0) D3 R12, pick: W by 38 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
31.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#1 seed in R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 92% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 31.75 (13.25-41.70) 99% in, 99% home, 97% bye, proj. #1 (#1-out), bye 97%
Lose: 25.50 (10.80-37.05) 99% in, 92% home, 67% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 67%
Based on eventual number of wins
(29%) 10W: 34.80 (27.80-41.70) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(41%) 9W: 31.00 (23.15-38.15) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(22%) 8W: 27.00 (18.30-34.25) 100% in, 99% home, 92% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#10), bye 92%
( 7%) 7W: 22.65 (16.55-29.40) 100% in, 96% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 38%
( 2%) 6W: 18.00 (13.50-23.00) 98% in, 42% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Badin (3-0) 13%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(29%) WWWWWWW: 34.80 (27.80-41.70) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(17%) WWWWWLW: 31.40 (25.45-37.50) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(18%) WWLWWWW: 30.85 (25.90-37.35) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 3%) LWWWWWW: 29.80 (24.55-37.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(10%) WWLWWLW: 27.50 (21.90-33.70) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 98%
( 4%) LWWWWLW: 26.80 (20.65-31.95) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 92%
( 3%) LWLWWLW: 23.15 (18.40-27.60) 100% in, 98% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 49%
( 1%) LWLWLLW: 17.50 (13.50-21.95) 98% in, 29% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Badin (3-0) 14%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 158.3, #37, D2 #14), likely in and likely home, 92% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 165.7, #26, D2 #12), likely in and likely home, 94% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 149.1, #59, D2 #20), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 56% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 144.3, #78, D2 #24), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 65% home (maybe if 6-4), 38% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 7-3
Last season 143.4