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Rankings
#72 of 104 in Division 3
#16 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #22 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #77 in D3 (-320 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 41-7 H #140 Butler (2-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 6 (39%), perf. rating 79
08/28 L 37-0 A #130 Valley View (1-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 81
09/04 H #164 Bishop Fenwick (1-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 28 (6%)
09/11 H #120 Talawanda (2-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 32 (3%)
09/18 A #311 Carlisle (1-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 16 (16%)
09/25 H #267 Monroe (1-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 18 (13%)
10/02 A #58 Bellbrook (2-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/09 H #340 Ross (1-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/16 A #196 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 28 (3%)
10/23 A #349 Brookville (1-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 10 (26%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.66 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.03 ( 0.56- 5.59) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Lose: 0.66 ( 0.00- 4.82) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Indian Hill (1-1) 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 4W: 2.78 ( 2.45- 3.36) 34% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(10%) 3W: 2.07 ( 1.78- 2.64) 4% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(18%) 2W: 1.35 ( 1.10- 1.78) out, proj. out
(29%) 1W: 0.66 ( 0.50- 1.04) out, proj. out
(37%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LLLWLWLW: 2.07 ( 1.92- 2.33) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), Chillicothe (2-0) 25%
( 2%) LLLWLWLL: 1.43 ( 1.32- 1.65) out
( 6%) LLLLLWLW: 1.30 ( 1.16- 1.56) out
( 3%) LLLWLLLL: 0.71 ( 0.61- 0.94) out
(11%) LLLLLWLL: 0.66 ( 0.66- 0.99) out
( 3%) LLWLLLLL: 0.64 ( 0.49- 0.83) out
( 9%) LLLLLLLW: 0.59 ( 0.50- 0.79) out
(37%) LLLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 93.6, #406, D3 #72), 9% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 97.4, #386, D3 #72), 11% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 111.7, #269, D3 #51), 51% (bubble if 4-6), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 14% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 113.5