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Rankings
#63 of 104 in Division 3
#13 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #33 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #72 in D3 (-287 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-14 A #465 Sidney (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 22 (84%), perf. rating 118
08/28 L 49-17 H #55 Bellbrook (3-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 27 (9%), perf. rating 103
09/04 L 14-7 H #290 Marion Harding (2-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 98
09/11 H #252 Benjamin Logan (1-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 7 (34%)
09/18 A #265 Indian Lake (2-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 9 (29%)
09/25 A #242 Kenton Ridge (2-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 12 (22%)
10/02 A #87 London (2-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/09 H #569 Tecumseh (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/16 A #151 Urbana (2-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/23 H #100 Jonathan Alder (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
24% (bubble if 4-6), 4% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.15 ( 3.15-25.95) 51% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 19%
Lose: 3.45 ( 1.20-21.80) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 19.00 (16.00-22.30) 100% in, 93% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Goshen (3-0) 19%
( 5%) 6W: 15.35 (11.95-20.60) 99% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Goshen (3-0) 18%
(10%) 5W: 11.90 ( 8.30-15.60) 88% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 22%
(16%) 4W: 8.80 ( 5.90-14.65) 43% in, proj. out (#9-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 28%
(27%) 3W: 5.80 ( 3.55-11.80) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 26%
(38%) 2W: 2.85 ( 1.75- 6.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 2%) 1W: 1.75 ( 1.20- 3.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWLWWW: 18.80 (17.00-21.30) 100% in, 91% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Goshen (3-0) 22%
( 3%) WWWLWLL: 11.65 ( 9.00-14.60) 86% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 23%
( 4%) WWLLWLL: 8.55 ( 6.40-11.55) 37% in, proj. out (#9-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 29%
( 5%) LLWLWLL: 5.95 ( 4.30- 8.65) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Unioto (2-1) 31%
(10%) WLLLWLL: 5.75 ( 3.70- 8.80) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 23%
( 7%) LWLLWLL: 5.60 ( 3.55- 8.40) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Indian Hill (2-1) 34%
(38%) LLLLWLL: 2.85 ( 1.75- 5.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Chillicothe (3-0) 50%
( 2%) LLLLLLL: 1.75 ( 1.20- 3.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 106.5, #316, D3 #63), 24% (bubble if 4-6), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 107.0, #314, D3 #63), 36% (bubble if 4-6), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 113.3, #261, D3 #51), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 111.1, #274, D3 #52), 55% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 103.8