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Rankings
#48 of 107 in Division 3
#9 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #38 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #53 in D3 (-170 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 55-21 H #494 Sidney (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 27 (89%), perf. rating 128
08/29 L 34-0 A #96 Bellbrook (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 7 (64%), perf. rating 93
09/05 L 23-6 A #183 Westerville Central (2-2) D1 R3, pick: W by 14 (78%), perf. rating 102
09/12 W 28-10 A #275 Benjamin Logan (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 17 (16%), perf. rating 141
09/19 H #299 Indian Lake (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 12 (77%)
09/26 H #244 Kenton Ridge (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 5 (62%)
10/03 H #45 London (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/10 A #542 Tecumseh (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/17 H #345 Urbana (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/24 A #191 Jonathan Alder (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
14.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
62% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (likely needs 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.85 ( 5.90-26.20) 73% in, 26% home, 2% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Talawanda (4-0) 14%
Lose: 9.60 ( 3.05-22.50) 26% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Talawanda (4-0) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 24.50 (22.05-26.20) 100% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 69%
(21%) 7W: 18.98 (15.85-22.90) 100% in, 80% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Talawanda (4-0) 16%
(33%) 6W: 14.95 (11.80-19.10) 91% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Talawanda (4-0) 15%
(26%) 5W: 11.70 ( 8.35-16.75) 34% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Jackson (3-1) 21%
(13%) 4W: 8.95 ( 6.10-13.30) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 5%) 3W: 6.70 ( 4.55- 9.30) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 24.50 (22.05-26.20) 100% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 69%
(20%) WWLWWW: 18.95 (15.85-21.45) 100% in, 79% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Talawanda (4-0) 16%
( 5%) WLLWWW: 15.20 (12.75-17.80) 91% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Talawanda (4-0) 18%
(22%) WWLWWL: 14.70 (11.80-17.45) 89% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Jackson (3-1) 15%
( 5%) LWLWWL: 11.80 ( 9.20-13.70) 36% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jackson (3-1) 21%
(14%) WLLWWL: 11.00 ( 8.35-13.85) 21% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jackson (3-1) 21%
( 6%) LLLWWL: 8.25 ( 6.10-10.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 50%
( 4%) LLLWLL: 6.65 ( 4.70- 8.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 119.1, #220, D3 #48), 62% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (likely needs 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 105.5, #336, D3 #65), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 120.2, #220, D3 #44), 53% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 142.0, #90, D3 #15), 91% (bubble if 6-4), 70% home (maybe if 8-2), 34% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 137.7, #113, D3 #24), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 62% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 134.9