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Rankings
#63 of 107 in Division 3
#13 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #42 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #78 in D3 (-422 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 24-21 H #221 Wyoming (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 11 (31%), perf. rating 113
08/29 W 57-8 A #616 Thurgood Marshall (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 41 (98%), perf. rating 122
09/05 W 28-21 H #383 Northwest (Cincy) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 24 (91%), perf. rating 107
09/12 L 21-13 H #292 Wilmington (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 9 (70%), perf. rating 96
09/19 A #50 Harrison (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 34 (2%)
09/26 A #171 Talawanda (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/03 A #178 Edgewood (Trenton) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/10 H #353 Franklin (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/17 A #412 Monroe (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/24 H #96 Bellbrook (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 28 (3%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.45 ( 8.60-25.55) 54% in, 19% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 15%
Lose: 7.05 ( 2.75-20.65) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Jackson (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 6W: 15.08 (11.75-19.05) 86% in, 11% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 15%
(14%) 5W: 11.10 ( 7.85-16.00) 16% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Jackson (3-1) 18%
(41%) 4W: 7.35 ( 4.95-14.00) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(30%) 3W: 5.65 ( 3.30-11.25) out, proj. out
(11%) 2W: 4.45 ( 2.75- 6.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWWL: 15.05 (12.70-17.95) 87% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 22%
( 5%) LWLWWL: 12.00 ( 9.65-14.70) 24% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 16%
( 3%) LLLWWW: 11.10 ( 8.40-14.20) 20% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jackson (3-1) 27%
( 6%) LLWWWL: 10.05 ( 7.85-13.55) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 21%
(35%) LLLWWL: 7.25 ( 4.95-10.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Miami Trace (4-0) 100%
(18%) LLLLWL: 6.10 ( 3.90- 9.35) out
(11%) LLLWLL: 5.50 ( 3.30- 8.70) out
(11%) LLLLLL: 4.45 ( 2.75- 6.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 108.1, #309, D3 #63), 6% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 110.8, #281, D3 #55), 22% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 119.2, #227, D3 #46), 39% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 116.2, #239, D3 #51), 38% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 114.1, #252, D3 #51), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 114.4