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Rankings
#24 of 105 in Division 4
#5 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #35 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #12 in D4 (+278 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 33-7 A #417 West Liberty-Salem (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 4 (43%), perf. rating 134
08/29 W 14-12 H #273 Columbus Academy (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 18 (82%), perf. rating 113
09/05 W 14-10 H #187 Bloom-Carroll (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 8 (67%), perf. rating 129
09/12 W 42-23 A #367 North Union (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 13 (78%), perf. rating 131
09/19 H #551 Shawnee (Springfield) (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 39 (99%)
09/26 A #542 Tecumseh (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/03 H #345 Urbana (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/10 A #45 London (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/17 A #244 Kenton Ridge (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/24 H #220 Bellefontaine (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
20.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 52% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.00 (11.50-32.10) 99% in, 94% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 52%
Lose: 18.50 (12.55-28.80) 99% in, 91% home, 27% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 28%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 10W: 28.83 (25.80-32.10) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(40%) 9W: 23.60 (18.50-28.85) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 90%
(35%) 8W: 20.00 (15.80-25.15) 100% in, 99% home, 33% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 33%
(17%) 7W: 16.90 (12.85-21.55) 99% in, 82% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Circleville (4-0) 13%
( 4%) 6W: 14.80 (11.75-18.60) 98% in, 45% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Circleville (4-0) 15%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWW: 28.83 (25.80-32.10) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(39%) WWWLWW: 23.55 (18.50-27.35) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 90%
( 2%) WWLLWW: 20.75 (17.20-24.00) 100% home, 50% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 50%
(15%) WWWLWL: 20.00 (15.80-23.60) 100% in, 99% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 32%
(17%) WWWLLW: 19.70 (15.90-23.55) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 30%
( 2%) WWLLWL: 17.85 (14.35-21.30) 100% in, 94% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Heath (1-3) 14%
(13%) WWWLLL: 16.65 (12.85-19.70) 99% in, 79% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Circleville (4-0) 14%
( 3%) WWLLLL: 14.55 (11.75-17.90) 97% in, 37% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Circleville (4-0) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 124.5, #191, D4 #24), likely in, 94% home (maybe if 6-4), 52% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 120.6, #217, D4 #30), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 123.3, #195, D4 #24), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 7-3), 30% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 130.9, #144, D4 #18), 88% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 7-3), 38% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 116.6, #232, D4 #31), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 112.2