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Rankings
#14 of 104 in Division 3
#5 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #60 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #13 in D3 (+183 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 41-10 H #410 West Liberty-Salem (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 138
08/28 W 36-12 A #297 Columbus Academy (1-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 147
09/04 W 35-14 A #289 Bloom-Carroll (1-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 24 (91%), perf. rating 143
09/11 H #184 North Union (3-0) D5 R18, pick: W by 15 (81%)
09/18 A #545 Shawnee (Springfield) (1-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 43 (99%)
09/25 H #569 Tecumseh (0-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 47 (99%)
10/02 A #151 Urbana (2-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/09 H #87 London (2-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/16 H #242 Kenton Ridge (2-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/23 A #316 Bellefontaine (1-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
23.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 88% home (maybe if 7-3), 53% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.20 (10.70-33.05) 99% in, 95% home, 62% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 62%
Lose: 17.70 ( 8.10-28.00) 97% in, 58% home, 13% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
(27%) 10W: 28.15 (22.65-33.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(33%) 9W: 23.95 (18.15-29.40) 100% in, 99% home, 69% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 69%
(22%) 8W: 20.25 (14.30-26.70) 100% in, 94% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), Sheridan (2-1) 14%
(11%) 7W: 17.00 (12.20-22.60) 99% in, 55% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Athens (2-1) 17%
( 5%) 6W: 13.85 ( 9.05-18.85) 94% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Jackson (2-1) 15%
( 1%) 5W: 11.40 ( 8.10-15.55) 72% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Jackson (2-1) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(27%) WWWWWWW: 28.15 (22.65-33.05) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 9%) WWWLWWW: 24.25 (18.15-29.05) 100% home, 73% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 73%
(19%) WWWWLWW: 23.70 (18.80-28.35) 100% in, 99% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 64%
(10%) WWWLLWW: 20.15 (15.30-25.05) 100% in, 94% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), Sheridan (2-1) 14%
( 4%) LWWWLWW: 19.90 (15.40-23.75) 100% in, 93% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), Sheridan (2-1) 15%
( 3%) WWWWLLW: 19.80 (14.30-23.85) 100% in, 91% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), Athens (2-1) 15%
( 4%) LWWLLWW: 16.65 (12.50-20.65) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Athens (2-1) 18%
( 1%) LWWLLLL: 11.10 ( 8.10-14.80) 66% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Jackson (2-1) 15%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 137.5, #100, D3 #14), likely in, 88% home (maybe if 7-3), 53% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 137.2, #105, D3 #12), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 89% home (maybe if 6-4), 65% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 128.4, #163, D3 #25), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 62% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 123.7, #185, D3 #31), 71% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 24% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 128.2