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Rankings
#92 of 104 in Division 2
#21 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #65 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #102 in D2 (-918 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 55-21 A #220 Bellefontaine (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 27 (11%), perf. rating 71
08/29 L 28-0 A #287 Fairborn (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 4 (58%), perf. rating 71
09/05 L 42-7 H #290 Stebbins (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 18 (16%), perf. rating 56
09/12 L 31-6 H #228 Butler (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 31 (3%), perf. rating 79
09/19 A #122 Xenia (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 41 (1%)
09/25 A #30 Tippecanoe (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/03 H #486 Greenville (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/10 A #105 Troy (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 42 (1%)
10/17 H #557 West Carrollton (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/24 H #261 Piqua (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 28 (3%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Lose: 1.65 ( 0.00-11.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 3W: 5.20 ( 4.00- 9.90) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(43%) 2W: 2.25 ( 2.25- 7.75) out, proj. out
(36%) 1W: 0.60 ( 0.60- 5.90) out, proj. out
(16%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) LLWLWW: 4.60 ( 4.00- 7.00) out
( 1%) LLLLWW: 2.95 ( 2.35- 4.75) out
(40%) LLWLWL: 2.25 ( 2.25- 4.05) out
( 8%) LLWLLL: 1.65 ( 1.65- 2.30) out
(28%) LLLLWL: 0.60 ( 0.60- 1.80) out
(16%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 79.9, #494, D2 #92), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 77.0, #516, D2 #92), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 87.7, #448, D2 #84), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 104.7, #323, D2 #71), 30% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (likely needs 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 109.1, #283, D2 #62), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 110.9