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Rankings
#20 of 101 in Division 4
#6 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #44 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #38 in D4 (-55 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-28 H #79 Bluffton (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 22 (16%), perf. rating 120
08/28 W 41-13 A #393 West Liberty-Salem (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 10 (69%), perf. rating 141
09/04 L 18-10 H #163 Lima Senior (3-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 114
09/11 W 45-0 A #410 Bellefontaine (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 7 (66%), perf. rating 159
09/18 H #537 Tecumseh (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 40 (99%)
09/25 H #191 Graham Local (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/02 A #159 North Union (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/09 A #259 Indian Lake (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/16 H #629 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/23 A #531 Shawnee (Springfield) (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 38 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
13.55 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#8 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
94% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.25 ( 4.32-19.30) 94% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Firelands (3-1) 19%
Lose: 9.52 ( 4.63-17.19) 75% in, 25% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Firelands (3-1) 21%
Based on eventual number of wins
(27%) 8W: 17.18 (15.11-19.30) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Upper Sandusky (2-2) 18%
(34%) 7W: 13.55 (11.33-18.15) 99% in, 69% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Firelands (3-1) 24%
(26%) 6W: 10.32 ( 8.25-15.58) 99% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Firelands (3-1) 21%
(12%) 5W: 7.20 ( 5.48-12.70) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 24%
( 1%) 4W: 6.04 ( 4.32- 8.11) 27% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(27%) WWWWWW: 17.18 (15.11-19.30) 100% in, 99% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Upper Sandusky (2-2) 18%
(21%) WWLWWW: 13.60 (11.48-16.13) 99% in, 68% home, proj. #8 (#5-out), Firelands (3-1) 24%
( 7%) WLWWWW: 13.55 (11.68-15.93) 100% in, 68% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Firelands (3-1) 24%
( 6%) WWWLWW: 13.50 (11.33-15.93) 100% in, 68% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Firelands (3-1) 25%
( 9%) WWLLWW: 10.37 ( 8.25-12.90) 99% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Firelands (3-1) 21%
( 3%) WLWLWW: 10.22 ( 8.46-13.46) 98% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Firelands (3-1) 20%
(13%) WLLWWW: 10.07 ( 8.35-12.80) 99% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Firelands (3-1) 20%
(11%) WLLLWW: 7.20 ( 5.48- 9.17) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 127.3, #166, D4 #20), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 115.7, #252, D4 #33), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 118.4, #232, D4 #31), 79% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 107.0, #308, D4 #41), 45% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 106.6, #301, D4 #41), 60% (bubble if 4-6), 39% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 114.6