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Rankings
#42 of 105 in Division 4
#12 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #54 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #49 in D4 (-100 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 33-30 A #123 Bluffton (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 43 (2%), perf. rating 134
08/29 W 24-0 H #417 West Liberty-Salem (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 127
09/05 W 41-24 A #345 Urbana (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 5 (61%), perf. rating 131
09/12 L 28-10 H #220 Bellefontaine (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 17 (84%), perf. rating 90
09/19 A #542 Tecumseh (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 30 (97%)
09/26 A #222 Graham Local (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/03 H #367 North Union (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/10 H #299 Indian Lake (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/17 A #393 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/24 H #551 Shawnee (Springfield) (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 33 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
82% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.25 ( 4.95-21.35) 83% in, 35% home, 7% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 13%
Lose: 9.40 ( 3.40-17.50) 50% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Napoleon (2-2) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
(17%) 8W: 18.30 (16.60-21.35) 100% in, 99% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 37%
(32%) 7W: 14.30 (12.40-19.10) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
(27%) 6W: 11.45 ( 9.30-15.80) 91% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
(17%) 5W: 8.80 ( 6.85-13.45) 47% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 18%
( 6%) 4W: 6.45 ( 5.05-11.40) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(17%) WWWWWW: 18.30 (16.60-21.35) 100% in, 99% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 37%
( 5%) WWWLWW: 15.25 (13.80-17.95) 100% in, 69% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Clear Fork (3-1) 17%
(23%) WLWWWW: 14.15 (12.40-17.50) 99% in, 43% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
(13%) WLWLWW: 11.45 (10.05-13.95) 91% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 15%
( 5%) WLWWLW: 11.25 ( 9.50-13.70) 89% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
( 5%) WLLWWW: 11.10 ( 9.30-14.35) 90% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 18%
( 7%) WLWLLW: 8.65 ( 6.85-11.50) 42% in, proj. out (#9-out), Napoleon (2-2) 19%
( 5%) WLLLLW: 6.40 ( 5.05- 8.85) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bay (3-1) 23%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 111.8, #275, D4 #42), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 120.7, #216, D4 #29), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 7-3), 35% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 115.1, #258, D4 #36), 73% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 99.8, #364, D4 #56), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 80.1, #517, D4 #87), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 84.4