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Rankings
#19 of 101 in Division 4
#5 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #15 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D4 (+140 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 49-0 H #515 Northeastern (0-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 10 (32%), perf. rating 138
08/28 W 35-12 A #334 Mechanicsburg (1-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 12 (73%), perf. rating 140
09/04 H #61 Lima Central Catholic (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 20 (13%)
09/11 H #233 Graham Local (2-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 10 (72%)
09/18 A #165 North Union (2-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 4 (40%)
09/25 A #83 London (1-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 18 (13%)
10/02 H #103 Jonathan Alder (2-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/09 A #276 Kenton Ridge (1-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 12 (79%)
10/16 H #314 Bellefontaine (1-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/23 A #564 Tecumseh (0-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 39 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
4.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
73% (bubble if 5-5), 47% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.72 ( 2.46- 7.62) 96% in, 83% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 55%
Lose: 4.04 ( 0.92- 6.92) 70% in, 42% home, 12% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), bye 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 10W: 7.34 ( 6.92- 7.62) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 7%) 9W: 6.55 ( 6.07- 6.93) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(14%) 8W: 5.71 ( 5.15- 6.18) 100% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 44%
(19%) 7W: 4.86 ( 4.26- 5.36) 100% in, 87% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Wilmington (1-1) 9%
(23%) 6W: 4.05 ( 3.66- 4.51) 96% in, 28% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Wilmington (1-1) 9%
(18%) 5W: 3.29 ( 2.84- 3.72) 46% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Valley View (1-1) 14%
(12%) 4W: 2.53 ( 2.17- 2.96) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 4%) 3W: 1.84 ( 1.56- 2.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWWWW: 7.34 ( 6.92- 7.62) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 6%) LWWLWWWW: 5.74 ( 5.31- 6.17) 100% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 39%
( 8%) LWWLLWWW: 4.77 ( 4.26- 5.28) 100% in, 82% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Dunbar (1-0) 11%
(10%) LWLLLWWW: 4.04 ( 3.66- 4.42) 98% in, 30% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Wilmington (1-1) 12%
( 5%) LLLLLWWW: 3.33 ( 3.07- 3.64) 51% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Valley View (1-1) 12%
( 6%) LWLLLLWW: 3.22 ( 2.84- 3.67) 33% in, proj. out (#10-out), Valley View (1-1) 17%
( 6%) LLLLLLWW: 2.52 ( 2.17- 2.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Kenton Ridge (1-1) 100%
( 4%) LLLLLLLW: 1.81 ( 1.56- 2.10) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 126.0, #177, D4 #19), 80% (bubble if 5-5), 56% home (maybe if 6-4), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 126.6, #172, D4 #18), 80% (bubble if 4-6), 64% home (maybe if 6-4), 38% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 102.1, #349, D4 #51), 30% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 100.7