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Rankings
#30 of 106 in Division 5
#5 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #23 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D5 (+10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 50-21 A #129 Bath (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 9 (34%), perf. rating 94
08/29 W 31-8 H #554 Fairbanks (1-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 22 (87%), perf. rating 104
09/05 W 50-20 H #451 Allen East (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 128
09/12 L 44-14 H #45 London (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 32 (3%), perf. rating 107
09/19 A #220 Bellefontaine (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 12 (23%)
09/26 A #367 North Union (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/03 H #551 Shawnee (Springfield) (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/10 A #275 Benjamin Logan (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/17 A #222 Graham Local (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/24 H #393 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 15 (84%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
55% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.35 ( 4.75-20.95) 90% in, 67% home, 25% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 27%
Lose: 8.55 ( 2.30-17.60) 45% in, 20% home, 3% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 8W: 18.80 (16.60-20.95) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
(15%) 7W: 15.50 (12.30-18.10) 100% in, 98% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#10), bye 19%
(24%) 6W: 11.95 ( 9.30-16.15) 99% in, 43% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 14%
(27%) 5W: 8.65 ( 6.60-13.55) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Miami East (3-1) 20%
(19%) 4W: 5.95 ( 4.15-10.20) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 9%) 3W: 3.55 ( 2.40- 7.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWW: 18.80 (16.60-20.95) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
( 7%) LWWWWW: 15.90 (14.30-17.60) 100% in, 99% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 30%
( 5%) WWWWLW: 14.75 (12.30-17.00) 100% in, 96% home, 4% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Arcanum (4-0) 13%
( 5%) LWWLWW: 12.35 (10.35-14.90) 100% in, 59% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
(11%) LWWWLW: 11.75 (10.20-13.85) 99% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
(15%) LWWLLW: 8.35 ( 6.60-10.85) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Miami East (3-1) 23%
(11%) LLWLLW: 5.95 ( 4.80- 8.20) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Preble Shawnee (4-0) 100%
( 8%) LLWLLL: 3.55 ( 2.40- 5.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 109.4, #299, D5 #30), 55% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 113.1, #268, D5 #25), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 109.2, #297, D5 #32), 54% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 104.9, #322, D5 #33), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 30% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 115.3, #242, D5 #25), 75% (bubble if 5-5), 56% home (maybe if 6-4), 29% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Last season 119.1