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Rankings
#14 of 106 in Division 5
#6 of 25 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #20 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #23 in D5 (+106 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 54-43 H #286 Bath (2-6) D5 R18, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 126
08/28 W 40-7 A #447 Fairbanks (2-6) D5 R19, pick: W by 35 (96%), perf. rating 139
09/04 L 32-14 A #217 Allen East (5-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 20 (87%), perf. rating 96
09/11 L 29-7 A #44 London (6-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 124
09/18 W 40-0 H #438 Bellefontaine (2-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 22 (92%), perf. rating 146
09/25 L 21-7 H #172 North Union (6-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 7 (33%), perf. rating 103
10/02 W 46-14 A #518 Shawnee (Springfield) (2-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 31 (98%), perf. rating 127
10/09 W 35-0 H #242 Benjamin Logan (3-5) D4 R14, pick: L by 5 (37%), perf. rating 167
10/16 H #139 Graham Local (7-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/23 A #627 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-8) D5 R20, pick: W by 47 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
37% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.45 (13.00-15.50) 83% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Bluffton (7-1) 27%
Lose: 10.25 ( 9.25-11.30) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
(44%) 7W: 14.45 (13.10-15.50) 83% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Bluffton (7-1) 27%
(56%) 6W: 10.25 ( 9.35-14.45) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(44%) WW: 14.45 (13.10-15.50) 83% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Bluffton (7-1) 27%
(55%) LW: 10.25 ( 9.35-11.30) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 117.8, #234, D5 #23), 12% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 6 (3-3, 116.5, #242, D5 #27), 12% (likely needs 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 5 (3-2, 117.8, #232, D5 #24), 31% (likely needs 7-3), 9% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 115.4, #259, D5 #26), 26% (likely needs 7-3), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 113.7, #265, D5 #29), 31% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 129.3, #154, D5 #11), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 57% home (maybe if 8-2), 30% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 130.4, #149, D5 #11), 84% (bubble if 6-4), 64% home (maybe if 8-2), 34% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 122.2, #195, D5 #19), 63% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home (maybe if 8-2), 17% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 7-3
Last season 123.9