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Rankings
#94 of 107 in Division 3
#23 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #85 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #88 in D3 (-532 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 20-0 H #377 Hughes (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 67
08/29 L 48-0 A #37 Big Walnut (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 47 (1%), perf. rating 97
09/05 L 30-0 A #443 Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 44
09/11 L 49-12 H #49 Withrow (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 49 (1%), perf. rating 94
09/18 H #563 Belmont (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 5 (62%)
09/25 A #644 Ponitz Tech (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/04 H #29 Trotwood-Madison (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/10 A #383 Northwest (Cincy) (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/17 H #616 Thurgood Marshall (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/24 A #531 Meadowdale (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 5 (37%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
5.29 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.04 ( 1.66-15.42) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 2.16 ( 0.00-11.18) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 5W: 10.02 ( 8.81-13.41) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(24%) 4W: 7.81 ( 5.74-12.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(35%) 3W: 5.29 ( 3.32- 9.18) out, proj. out
(24%) 2W: 2.57 ( 1.96- 6.61) out, proj. out
(10%) 1W: 1.06 ( 0.55- 3.58) out, proj. out
( 3%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWLWWW: 9.97 ( 8.81-11.64) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Bellbrook (2-2) 33%
(21%) WWLLWW: 7.81 ( 7.25- 9.42) out
(23%) WWLLWL: 5.34 ( 4.88- 7.31) out
( 8%) LWLLWW: 4.48 ( 4.02- 6.20) out
( 4%) WWLLLL: 3.62 ( 2.77- 5.19) out
(14%) LWLLWL: 2.16 ( 2.11- 3.78) out
( 6%) LWLLLL: 0.55 ( 0.55- 2.22) out
( 3%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 72.2, #547, D3 #94), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 71.9, #549, D3 #95), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 86.9, #455, D3 #85), 7% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 79.7, #518, D3 #90), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 86.7, #475, D3 #86), 27% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 78.8