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Rankings
#72 of 102 in Division 4
#16 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #95 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #63 in D4 (-297 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 32-23 A #513 Briggs (3-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 14 (74%), perf. rating 93
09/04 L 42-26 H #344 Cincinnati College Prep (7-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 78
09/11 L 21-20 A #435 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (6-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 9 (30%), perf. rating 89
09/18 W 27-24 A #514 Belmont (3-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 4 (60%), perf. rating 84
09/25 W 40-8 H #606 Ponitz Tech (1-5) D3 R12, pick: W by 25 (94%), perf. rating 103
10/02 L 51-6 A #20 Trotwood-Madison (6-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 49 (1%), perf. rating 107
10/08 H #259 Northwest (Cincy) (6-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/09 A #694 Dayton Stivers (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/17 H #650 Thurgood Marshall (1-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/22 H #540 Meadowdale (2-5) D4 R16, pick: W by 17 (87%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.36 Harbin points (divisor 95)
#9 seed in R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (likely in at 5-5 or better), 7% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.75 (11.91-17.59) 100% in, 80% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Wilmington (3-4) 61%
Lose: 11.36 ( 7.04-13.46) 98% in, 2% home, proj. #9 (#8-out), Wilmington (3-4) 49%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 7W: 15.85 (14.75-17.59) 100% in, 86% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Wilmington (3-4) 61%
(80%) 6W: 11.36 (10.83-14.93) 100% in, 3% home, proj. #9 (#8-#12), Wilmington (3-4) 54%
(14%) 5W: 8.96 ( 8.07-12.43) 87% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Oakwood (6-1) 25%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWW: 15.85 (14.75-17.59) 100% in, 86% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Wilmington (3-4) 61%
(80%) LWW: 11.36 (10.38-14.88) 100% in, 2% home, proj. #9 (#8-#12), Wilmington (3-4) 54%
(13%) LWL: 8.96 ( 7.62-10.70) 85% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), North College Hill (6-0) 26%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-3, 88.3, #439, D4 #72), 98% (likely in at 5-5 or better), 7% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 6 (3-2, 85.7, #461, D4 #76), 97% (likely in at 4-5 or better), 7% home (likely needs 6-3), proj. #9 at 5-4
Week 5 (2-2, 84.3, #469, D4 #76), 94% (bubble if 3-6), 18% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. #9 at 5-4
Week 4 (1-2, 82.7, #481, D4 #78), 66% (bubble if 4-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-3), proj. #12 at 4-5
Week 3 (1-1, 83.5, #472, D4 #78), 60% (bubble if 4-5), 30% home (maybe if 5-4), 4% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #9 at 5-4
Week 2 (1-0, 84.5, #466, D4 #74), 58% (bubble if 4-5), 31% home (maybe if 5-4), 9% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #9 at 5-4
Week 1 (1-0, 79.0, #499, D4 #78), 49% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 79.1, #501, D4 #79), 46% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 79.9