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Rankings
#88 of 105 in Division 4
#19 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #101 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #86 in D4 (-560 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-20 A #497 Independence (Cbus) (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 70
08/28 L 42-6 H #171 Talawanda (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 72
09/06 W 48-0 H #658 Troy Christian (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 36 (98%), perf. rating 103
09/12 L 20-0 H #421 North College Hill (4-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 61
09/19 H #443 Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 10 (27%)
09/26 H #616 Thurgood Marshall (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/03 A #203 Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/10 A #644 Ponitz Tech (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/16 A #563 Belmont (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/24 H #547 Dunbar (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 5 (63%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
13% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.30 ( 3.15-15.85) 40% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Wyoming (3-1) 25%
Lose: 5.25 ( 0.40-12.25) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 28%
Based on eventual number of wins
(16%) 6W: 11.00 ( 9.40-13.75) 63% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Wyoming (3-1) 26%
(29%) 5W: 7.90 ( 6.00-11.90) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 31%
(29%) 4W: 5.60 ( 4.10- 9.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(18%) 3W: 3.00 ( 2.05- 6.90) out, proj. out
( 6%) 2W: 1.45 ( 0.95- 4.35) out, proj. out
( 2%) 1W: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.25) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WWLWWW: 11.00 ( 9.40-13.40) 62% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 26%
( 3%) WWLWWL: 8.85 ( 7.45-11.15) 19% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 34%
(21%) LWLWWW: 7.85 ( 7.35- 9.95) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wyoming (3-1) 29%
( 4%) WWLWLW: 7.45 ( 6.00- 9.85) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 38%
(11%) LWLWWL: 5.70 ( 5.20- 7.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Cinc. Hills Christian (3-1) 50%
(12%) LWLWLW: 4.60 ( 4.10- 6.75) out
(12%) LWLWLL: 2.55 ( 2.50- 4.70) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 0.40 ( 0.40- 1.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 75.3, #531, D4 #88), 13% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 82.6, #487, D4 #81), 41% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 83.1, #483, D4 #82), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 85.3, #470, D4 #82), 45% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 88.6, #463, D4 #79), 48% (bubble if 7-3), 26% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 91.9