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Rankings
#88 of 102 in Division 4
#22 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #81 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #76 in D4 (-397 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 8-6 H #544 Independence (Cbus) (1-6) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 74
08/28 L 49-0 A #185 Talawanda (6-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 34 (4%), perf. rating 64
09/04 L 18-6 A #473 Purcell Marian (4-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 69
09/11 L 43-0 A #231 North College Hill (6-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 18 (14%), perf. rating 58
09/18 L 38-14 A #344 Cincinnati College Prep (7-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 28 (4%), perf. rating 70
09/26 W 32-0 A #650 Thurgood Marshall (1-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 27 (96%), perf. rating 91
10/02 L 36-0 A #180 Cinc. Hills Christian (6-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 39 (1%), perf. rating 74
10/10 H #606 Ponitz Tech (1-5) D3 R12, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/15 H #514 Belmont (3-4) D2 R8, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/22 A #439 Dunbar (3-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 17 (13%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.84 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
12% (likely needs 5-5), no home game
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.23 ( 3.28-11.37) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out), Oakwood (6-1) 29%
Lose: 2.73 ( 2.17- 9.60) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 5W: 10.10 ( 9.08-11.37) 99% in, proj. #10 (#9-out), Oakwood (6-1) 37%
(38%) 4W: 6.79 ( 6.13- 9.60) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out), North College Hill (6-0) 36%
(45%) 3W: 3.84 ( 3.28- 6.90) out, proj. out
( 8%) 2W: 2.73 ( 2.17- 3.96) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWW: 10.10 ( 9.08-11.37) 99% in, proj. #10 (#9-out), Oakwood (6-1) 37%
( 4%) WLW: 7.15 ( 6.13- 9.39) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 33%
(34%) WWL: 6.79 ( 6.23- 8.47) 7% in, proj. out (#10-out), North College Hill (6-0) 38%
( 3%) LWL: 5.68 ( 4.56- 6.90) out
(41%) WLL: 3.84 ( 3.28- 5.63) out
( 8%) LLL: 2.73 ( 2.17- 3.96) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 73.5, #540, D4 #88), 12% (likely needs 5-5), no home game, proj. out at 3-7
Week 6 (2-4, 72.5, #540, D4 #87), 21% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 5 (1-4, 71.1, #547, D4 #89), 18% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 72.3, #539, D4 #87), 24% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 80.9, #493, D4 #82), 39% (likely needs 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 84.7, #463, D4 #73), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 87.2, #447, D4 #71), 72% (bubble if 4-6), 47% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 86.5, #458, D4 #73), 54% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 5-5
Last season 85.3