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Rankings
#83 of 104 in Division 3
#20 of 25 in Region 11
Strength of schedule #103 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D3 (+10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 42-6 A #671 Mifflin (0-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 31 (92%), perf. rating 86
08/28 W 29-0 A #631 Centennial (0-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 7 (36%), perf. rating 95
09/03 W 35-34 H #526 Belmont (2-1) D2 R8, pick: W by 14 (78%), perf. rating 76
09/11 A #299 Walnut Ridge (0-3) D2 R7, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/17 H #497 Independence (Cbus) (1-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/25 A #558 Eastmoor Academy (0-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 8 (69%)
10/02 A #519 Briggs (1-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/09 H #390 Africentric Early Coll. (0-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/16 H #454 West (3-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/23 A #430 Marion-Franklin (0-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 12 (21%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R11 playoffs
Playoff chances now
48% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 17.60 ( 6.35-26.60) 89% in, 50% home, 13% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 14%
Lose: 10.55 ( 3.75-24.65) 46% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Jackson (2-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 10W: 24.45 (23.10-26.60) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 72%
( 5%) 9W: 20.75 (17.55-24.65) 100% in, 96% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Athens (2-1) 16%
(11%) 8W: 17.55 (13.40-22.20) 99% in, 47% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Linden McKinley (3-0) 16%
(16%) 7W: 14.50 ( 9.80-19.40) 91% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Jackson (2-1) 14%
(20%) 6W: 11.55 ( 7.70-17.90) 56% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Jackson (2-1) 14%
(20%) 5W: 9.10 ( 5.10-13.85) 22% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jackson (2-1) 13%
(17%) 4W: 7.05 ( 4.60-11.60) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Granville (2-1) 17%
(10%) 3W: 5.75 ( 3.75- 8.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 24.45 (23.10-26.60) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 72%
( 4%) LWWWWWW: 20.75 (18.05-24.65) 100% in, 96% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Athens (2-1) 16%
( 4%) LWWWLWW: 17.70 (15.50-21.20) 100% in, 52% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Linden McKinley (3-0) 16%
( 4%) LWWWLWL: 15.10 (12.65-18.50) 96% in, 9% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Jackson (2-1) 15%
( 4%) LWWWLLL: 10.90 ( 8.15-14.15) 46% in, proj. out (#9-out), Jonathan Alder (3-0) 14%
( 5%) LWWLLLL: 8.55 ( 6.35-12.75) 15% in, proj. out (#10-out), Jonathan Alder (3-0) 17%
( 6%) LLWLLLL: 6.65 ( 4.60- 9.75) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Linden McKinley (3-0) 24%
(10%) LLLLLLL: 5.75 ( 3.75- 8.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Granville (2-1) 33%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 79.8, #499, D3 #83), 48% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 87.4, #447, D3 #79), 59% (bubble if 6-4), 29% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 68.1, #573, D3 #98), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 65.9, #577, D3 #98), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 68.6