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Rankings
#103 of 104 in Division 3
#26 of 26 in Region 12
Strength of schedule #104 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #99 in D3 (-903 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 51-0 H #409 Purcell Marian (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 37 (4%), perf. rating 29
08/28 L 57-0 A #332 Ross (1-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 44 (1%), perf. rating 44
09/04 L 46-0 A #400 Washington (1-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 40 (1%), perf. rating 35
09/11 A #651 Woodward (Cincy) (0-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 4 (41%)
09/17 H #695 Dayton Stivers (0-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 29 (97%)
09/26 H #493 Meadowdale (1-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/01 A #615 Ponitz Tech (0-3) D3 R12, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/07 A #526 Belmont (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/17 A #472 Dunbar (1-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/23 H #452 Dayton Christian (2-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 35 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.83 Harbin points (divisor 93)
out of R12 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.33 ( 0.50-13.44) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Lose: 0.83 ( 0.00-11.71) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 7.07 ( 5.35-10.35) 11% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 3%) 4W: 4.58 ( 3.18- 8.56) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(11%) 3W: 2.36 ( 1.50- 8.44) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(35%) 2W: 1.33 ( 0.95- 5.67) out, proj. out
(47%) 1W: 0.83 ( 0.45- 3.68) out, proj. out
( 3%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWLWWLL: 4.41 ( 3.98- 6.02) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Miami Trace (2-1) 100%
( 1%) WWWWLLL: 4.18 ( 3.24- 5.92) out
( 1%) WWLLLLW: 4.03 ( 2.69- 5.97) out
( 7%) WWLWLLL: 1.88 ( 1.50- 4.13) out
( 5%) LWLWLLL: 1.38 ( 1.00- 3.10) out
(27%) WWLLLLL: 1.33 ( 0.95- 3.10) out
(46%) LWLLLLL: 0.83 ( 0.45- 1.90) out
( 3%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 38.3, #654, D3 #103), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 38.3, #658, D3 #103), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 38.3, #663, D3 #103), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 41.2, #661, D3 #103), 6% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Last season 38.9