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Rankings
#99 of 105 in Division 4
#25 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #100 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #91 in D4 (-648 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 40-0 A #365 Purcell Marian (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 32 (7%), perf. rating 43
08/29 L 57-8 H #309 Ross (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 41 (2%), perf. rating 44
09/05 L 60-7 A #464 Western Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 23
09/13 W 30-7 H #646 Woodward (Cincy) (0-4) D3 R12, pick: L by 16 (17%), perf. rating 81
09/20 A #46 Taft (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 49 (1%)
09/26 A #531 Meadowdale (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/03 H #644 Ponitz Tech (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/09 H #563 Belmont (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/17 A #547 Dunbar (0-4) D3 R12, pick: L by 17 (13%)
10/24 A #518 Dayton Christian (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 22 (7%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Lose: 1.70 ( 0.55-12.05) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 10.88 ( 9.85-15.35) 71% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out)
( 4%) 5W: 8.40 ( 6.25-12.45) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(12%) 4W: 5.85 ( 4.10-10.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(23%) 3W: 3.65 ( 2.20- 8.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(40%) 2W: 1.10 ( 1.10- 6.35) out, proj. out
(20%) 1W: 0.55 ( 0.55- 1.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LLWWWW: 8.45 ( 7.40-10.45) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wyoming (3-1) 40%
( 3%) LLWWLW: 6.72 ( 5.05- 8.60) out
( 3%) LLWWWL: 5.40 ( 4.95- 7.55) out
( 3%) LLWLLW: 4.15 ( 3.20- 5.40) out
(11%) LLWWLL: 3.70 ( 3.30- 6.40) out
( 5%) LLWLWL: 2.70 ( 2.20- 4.55) out
(33%) LLWLLL: 1.10 ( 1.10- 3.40) out
(20%) LLLLLL: 0.55 ( 0.55- 1.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 57.2, #616, D4 #99), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 43.5, #654, D4 #101), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 54.2, #622, D4 #99), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 56.1, #617, D4 #100), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 60.2, #606, D4 #98), 5% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Last season 50.0