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Rankings
#66 of 105 in Division 4
#16 of 26 in Region 16
Strength of schedule #70 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #61 in D4 (-202 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 50-7 A #620 Southeastern Local (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 13 (72%), perf. rating 121
08/29 W 42-7 H #456 Greenon (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 21 (85%), perf. rating 135
09/05 L 45-21 A #373 Miami East (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 18 (84%), perf. rating 66
09/12 W 42-20 H #542 Tecumseh (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 24 (92%), perf. rating 104
09/19 A #244 Kenton Ridge (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 21 (9%)
09/26 A #551 Shawnee (Springfield) (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/03 A #222 Graham Local (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/10 H #367 North Union (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/17 H #275 Benjamin Logan (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/24 A #299 Indian Lake (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 15 (16%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R16 playoffs
Playoff chances now
27% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.65 ( 7.05-22.20) 83% in, 20% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Wyoming (3-1) 17%
Lose: 7.50 ( 3.65-19.50) 21% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Wyoming (3-1) 23%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 8W: 17.00 (14.40-19.50) 100% in, 59% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Brookville (4-0) 16%
( 8%) 7W: 13.75 (11.15-18.30) 98% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Wyoming (3-1) 17%
(20%) 6W: 10.60 ( 8.05-15.45) 59% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Wyoming (3-1) 26%
(32%) 5W: 7.90 ( 5.90-13.20) 11% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 28%
(32%) 4W: 5.70 ( 4.15-10.05) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 4%) 3W: 5.20 ( 3.65- 7.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWW: 17.52 (16.00-19.50) 100% in, 59% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Kenton Ridge (3-1) 17%
( 7%) LWLWWL: 10.80 ( 8.80-13.50) 58% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 25%
( 6%) LWLWLW: 10.05 ( 8.05-14.30) 42% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 30%
( 6%) LWLLWL: 8.60 ( 6.60-11.55) 15% in, proj. out (#9-out), Wyoming (3-1) 21%
( 5%) LWLLLW: 7.62 ( 5.90-10.80) 7% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wyoming (3-1) 31%
(18%) LWLWLL: 7.60 ( 5.90-10.50) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Wyoming (3-1) 33%
(30%) LWLLLL: 5.70 ( 4.15- 8.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Wyoming (3-1) 75%
( 4%) LLLLLL: 5.20 ( 3.65- 7.70) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Taft (4-0) 50%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 96.8, #393, D4 #66), 27% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 97.4, #386, D4 #61), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 110.4, #291, D4 #43), 79% (bubble if 6-4), 48% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 104.7, #325, D4 #49), 71% (bubble if 6-4), 42% home (maybe if 8-2), 6% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 90.4, #446, D4 #78), 29% (bubble if 7-3), 12% home (maybe if 9-1), 2% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 92.6