Region 20 home page
Region 20 projections
Region 20 playoff probabilities
Region 20 seeding probabilities
Eitel Region 20 page
Eitel team page
Team history page
Rankings
#50 of 105 in Division 5
#11 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #59 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #43 in D5 (-70 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 41-10 A #83 Jonathan Alder (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 98
08/28 L 41-13 H #166 Benjamin Logan (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 10 (31%), perf. rating 84
09/04 W 31-0 H #576 Cedarville (1-3) D7 R28, pick: W by 18 (84%), perf. rating 110
09/18 H #472 Greenon (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 15 (83%)
09/25 A #498 Fairbanks (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/02 H #521 Northeastern (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/09 A #603 Triad (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/16 H #293 West Jefferson (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/23 A #275 Mechanicsburg (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 18 (12%)
Regular season projections
5-4 record
9.44 Harbin points (divisor 90)
#9 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
66% (likely needs 5-4), 32% home (likely needs 6-3), 5% bye (maybe if 7-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.89 ( 4.39-19.17) 76% in, 38% home, 6% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Mariemont (3-1) 10%
Lose: 5.83 ( 0.89-15.44) 15% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Mariemont (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 7W: 16.89 (14.89-19.17) 100% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 64%
(24%) 6W: 13.06 (10.94-17.39) 100% in, 91% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Arcanum (3-1) 11%
(42%) 5W: 9.44 ( 7.72-15.56) 80% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Mariemont (3-1) 12%
(19%) 4W: 7.44 ( 5.00-13.06) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Greeneview (3-1) 14%
( 7%) 3W: 4.89 ( 3.06-10.22) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 2W: 3.22 ( 1.78- 6.56) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWWWW: 16.89 (14.89-19.17) 100% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 64%
(15%) WWWWWL: 13.11 (10.94-15.83) 100% in, 92% home, 5% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Preble Shawnee (3-1) 11%
( 8%) WWWWLW: 13.00 (11.28-15.67) 100% in, 89% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Bishop Fenwick (2-2) 12%
(36%) WWWWLL: 9.39 ( 7.72-11.78) 78% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Greeneview (3-1) 12%
( 7%) WLWWLL: 7.72 ( 6.39-10.39) 16% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Greeneview (3-1) 17%
( 3%) WWLWLL: 7.72 ( 6.17- 9.89) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), Mariemont (3-1) 18%
( 7%) LWWWLL: 6.17 ( 5.00- 8.11) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bishop Fenwick (2-2) 33%
( 1%) LLLWLL: 3.22 ( 2.44- 4.67) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-2, 97.2, #393, D5 #50), 66% (likely needs 5-4), 32% home (likely needs 6-3), 5% bye (maybe if 7-2), proj. #9 at 5-4
Week 3 (1-2, 93.4, #410, D5 #53), 50% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 89.4, #432, D5 #59), 41% (bubble if 6-4), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 95.0, #402, D5 #57), 58% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 99.7, #371, D5 #50), 63% (bubble if 5-5), 42% home (maybe if 6-4), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 93.9