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Rankings
#21 of 106 in Division 5
#2 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #33 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #10 in D5 (+308 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-27 A #244 Kenton Ridge (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 12 (29%), perf. rating 120
08/29 W 35-7 A #483 Milton-Union (0-4) D5 R20, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 125
09/05 W 49-8 H #513 Covington (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 34 (97%), perf. rating 137
09/13 W 67-47 H #345 Urbana (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 8 (68%), perf. rating 131
09/19 A #45 London (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/26 H #275 Benjamin Logan (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/03 H #393 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/10 A #551 Shawnee (Springfield) (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/17 H #299 Indian Lake (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/24 A #367 North Union (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 16 (85%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
17.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 73% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 25.60 (16.15-29.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
Lose: 18.90 ( 7.45-24.10) 99% in, 95% home, 72% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 73%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 10W: 26.45 (23.55-29.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(45%) 9W: 21.10 (17.50-25.85) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(30%) 8W: 17.75 (14.80-23.05) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 78%
(15%) 7W: 14.80 (11.45-22.35) 100% in, 97% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 18%
( 6%) 6W: 12.15 ( 9.30-16.65) 98% in, 48% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Greeneview (2-2) 13%
( 2%) 5W: 9.55 ( 7.45-14.25) 67% in, 9% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Carlisle (3-1) 18%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 26.45 (23.55-29.30) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(44%) LWWWWW: 21.10 (17.50-24.10) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(10%) LWWWLW: 18.00 (15.50-21.50) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 78%
( 7%) LWWWWL: 17.95 (15.20-21.85) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 72%
(11%) LLWWWW: 17.30 (14.80-21.25) 100% home, 79% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#7), bye 79%
( 3%) LWWWLL: 15.30 (12.70-18.70) 100% in, 97% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 19%
( 6%) LLWWLW: 14.60 (12.15-17.80) 100% in, 98% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 18%
( 1%) LLLWLL: 9.40 ( 7.45-12.50) 61% in, 5% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Carlisle (3-1) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 118.7, #222, D5 #21), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 73% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 113.4, #265, D5 #24), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 74% home (maybe if 6-4), 41% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 111.4, #284, D5 #30), 86% (bubble if 5-5), 65% home (maybe if 6-4), 31% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 94.0, #413, D5 #54), 46% (bubble if 5-5), 27% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 89.5, #452, D5 #60), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 21% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 93.3