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Rankings
#31 of 105 in Division 5
#4 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #30 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #90 in D5 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 H #303 Kenton Ridge (0-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 7 (63%)
08/28 H #494 Milton-Union (0-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 28 (92%)
09/04 A #479 Covington (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 24 (91%)
09/11 A #349 Urbana (0-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 7 (66%)
09/18 H #51 London (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 31 (3%)
09/25 A #301 Benjamin Logan (0-0) D4 R14, pick: W by 3 (58%)
10/02 A #442 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/09 H #536 Shawnee (Springfield) (0-0) D4 R16, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/16 A #195 Indian Lake (0-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/23 H #304 North Union (0-0) D5 R18, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
71% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.90 ( 0.50-33.60) 87% in, 71% home, 45% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 52%
Lose: 8.20 ( 0.00-27.65) 44% in, 26% home, 9% bye, proj. out (#1-out), bye 21%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 10W: 26.25 (18.25-33.60) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(12%) 9W: 21.80 (14.85-30.15) 100% in, 99% home, 97% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#9), bye 97%
(16%) 8W: 18.25 (11.45-27.25) 100% in, 99% home, 72% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#12), bye 72%
(17%) 7W: 15.20 ( 8.55-22.45) 99% in, 86% home, 31% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 31%
(15%) 6W: 12.20 ( 5.85-20.40) 91% in, 49% home, 6% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 7%
(12%) 5W: 9.65 ( 4.05-16.55) 60% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 9%
(10%) 4W: 7.40 ( 2.75-13.35) 23% in, 2% home, proj. out (#6-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 9%
( 7%) 3W: 5.20 ( 1.70-10.70) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 5%) 2W: 3.25 ( 0.90- 7.75) out, proj. out
( 2%) 1W: 1.40 ( 0.40- 4.70) out, proj. out
( 1%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 4%
Purcell Marian (0-0) 3%
Miami East (0-0) 3%
Williamsburg (0-0) 3%
Most likely second round opponents
Brookville (0-0) 10%
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 10%
Carlisle (0-0) 8%
Williamsburg (0-0) 7%
Greeneview (0-0) 7%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 34.6, #673, D5 #101), 10% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 117.9