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Rankings
#17 of 105 in Division 5
#2 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #23 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #12 in D5 (+277 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 34-24 H #242 Kenton Ridge (2-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 130
08/28 W 44-14 H #556 Milton-Union (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 113
09/04 W 27-0 A #411 Covington (1-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 19 (86%), perf. rating 135
09/11 A #151 Urbana (2-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 9 (30%)
09/18 H #87 London (2-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 17 (14%)
09/25 A #252 Benjamin Logan (1-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 5 (62%)
10/02 A #610 Northwestern (Sprfd.) (0-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 43 (99%)
10/09 H #545 Shawnee (Springfield) (1-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/16 A #265 Indian Lake (2-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/23 H #184 North Union (3-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 1 (47%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 4-6), 88% home (maybe if 5-5), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.65 ( 8.95-31.40) 100% in, 99% home, 89% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#12), bye 89%
Lose: 15.00 ( 5.65-28.75) 97% in, 82% home, 49% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 50%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 10W: 27.25 (21.75-31.40) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
(14%) 9W: 23.25 (18.40-28.75) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(22%) 8W: 19.65 (14.90-25.55) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 98%
(24%) 7W: 16.20 (11.90-21.60) 100% in, 99% home, 70% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 70%
(22%) 6W: 13.05 ( 9.60-17.90) 99% in, 87% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 18%
(12%) 5W: 10.25 ( 7.10-14.50) 89% in, 28% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Williamsburg (2-1) 10%
( 1%) 4W: 8.85 ( 5.65-11.60) 63% in, 8% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Bishop Fenwick (2-1) 10%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWWWWW: 27.25 (21.75-31.40) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#3), bye 100%
( 8%) WLWWWWW: 22.95 (18.40-27.75) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(11%) LLWWWWW: 19.70 (16.10-23.40) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 8%) LLWWWWL: 16.05 (12.30-20.30) 100% in, 99% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 67%
( 6%) LLWWWLL: 12.95 ( 9.60-16.55) 100% in, 87% home, 16% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 16%
( 8%) LLLWWWL: 12.90 ( 9.80-16.65) 100% in, 86% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#12), bye 15%
(12%) LLLWWLL: 10.15 ( 7.10-14.05) 88% in, 26% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#3-out), Williamsburg (2-1) 10%
( 1%) LLLWLLL: 8.70 ( 5.65-11.40) 56% in, 7% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Bishop Fenwick (2-1) 10%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 122.6, #200, D5 #17), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 88% home (maybe if 5-5), 61% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 118.2, #233, D5 #23), 89% (bubble if 4-6), 68% home (maybe if 5-5), 39% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 113.8, #257, D5 #27), 87% (bubble if 4-6), 65% home (maybe if 5-5), 35% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 111.2, #273, D5 #31), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 55% home (maybe if 6-4), 33% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 117.9