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Rankings
#55 of 100 in Division 2
#15 of 25 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #58 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #53 in D2 (-190 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 49-7 A #38 Worthington Kilbourne (6-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 14 (26%), perf. rating 98
08/28 L 21-14 A #221 Sheridan (5-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 21 (15%), perf. rating 111
09/04 W 41-7 A #449 Mansfield Senior (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 16 (81%), perf. rating 140
09/11 W 42-13 H #517 Marietta (0-6) D3 R11, pick: W by 30 (96%), perf. rating 118
09/18 W 17-10 H #260 Heath (4-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 2 (55%), perf. rating 123
09/25 L 40-0 A #96 Licking Valley (6-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 20 (10%), perf. rating 82
10/02 H #437 Licking Heights (1-5) D1 R3, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/09 A #210 Granville (4-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/16 H #286 Zanesville (4-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/23 A #320 Mount Vernon (2-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 5 (63%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
13.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
36% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.10 ( 5.50-19.60) 37% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), New Albany (5-1) 24%
Lose: 8.72 ( 4.95-16.90) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(16%) 7W: 16.55 (14.95-19.60) 99% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Canal Winchester (3-3) 20%
(36%) 6W: 13.00 (11.10-16.90) 52% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), New Albany (5-1) 33%
(31%) 5W: 9.95 ( 7.70-14.40) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), New Albany (5-1) 48%
(15%) 4W: 7.35 ( 5.50-10.75) out, proj. out
( 2%) 3W: 5.90 ( 4.95- 7.60) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(16%) WWWW: 16.55 (14.95-19.60) 99% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Canal Winchester (3-3) 20%
( 4%) WWWL: 14.25 (12.35-16.45) 68% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), New Albany (5-1) 27%
( 5%) WWLW: 12.95 (11.10-15.75) 52% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), New Albany (5-1) 35%
(26%) WLWW: 12.90 (11.15-15.70) 50% in, proj. out (#9-out), New Albany (5-1) 34%
(14%) WLWL: 10.35 ( 8.45-13.75) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), New Albany (5-1) 48%
(14%) WLLW: 9.20 ( 7.70-11.90) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), New Albany (5-1) 38%
(13%) WLLL: 7.05 ( 5.50-10.15) out
( 2%) LLLL: 5.90 ( 4.95- 7.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (3-3, 113.8, #263, D2 #55), 36% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 117.0, #244, D2 #53), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 116.1, #249, D2 #54), 23% (likely needs 7-3), 5% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 116.6, #244, D2 #54), 15% (likely needs 7-3), 3% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 107.5, #308, D2 #62), 12% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 104.2, #334, D2 #67), 15% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 117.9, #220, D2 #54), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 121.6