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Rankings
#54 of 100 in Division 2
#15 of 25 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #60 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #56 in D2 (-254 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 49-7 A #41 Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) D1 R3, pick: L by 14 (26%), perf. rating 97
08/28 L 21-14 A #180 Sheridan (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 21 (15%), perf. rating 117
09/04 W 41-7 A #494 Mansfield Senior (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 16 (81%), perf. rating 133
09/11 H #484 Marietta (0-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 30 (96%)
09/18 H #331 Heath (2-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 14 (81%)
09/25 A #91 Licking Valley (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/02 H #384 Licking Heights (0-3) D1 R3, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/09 A #84 Granville (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/16 H #340 Zanesville (2-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/23 A #356 Mount Vernon (1-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.85 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
15% (likely needs 7-3), 3% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.35 ( 1.10-25.20) 15% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Ashland (3-0) 11%
Lose: 6.20 ( 0.55-20.05) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 21.30 (18.15-25.20) 100% in, 87% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), New Albany (2-1) 11%
(10%) 7W: 16.30 (13.25-21.30) 86% in, 10% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Ashland (3-0) 12%
(36%) 6W: 11.80 ( 8.25-18.55) 13% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Canal Winchester (1-2) 13%
(27%) 5W: 8.85 ( 5.80-15.10) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(15%) 4W: 6.30 ( 3.45-11.50) out, proj. out
( 7%) 3W: 3.95 ( 1.75- 8.55) out, proj. out
( 3%) 2W: 2.10 ( 1.10- 5.55) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWWW: 21.30 (18.15-25.20) 100% in, 87% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), New Albany (2-1) 11%
( 5%) WWWWLWW: 16.50 (13.25-20.35) 89% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Walnut Ridge (0-3) 11%
( 5%) WWLWWWW: 16.05 (13.30-20.45) 82% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Ashland (3-0) 14%
(32%) WWLWLWW: 11.65 ( 8.25-16.00) 10% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Canal Winchester (1-2) 12%
( 9%) WWLWLWL: 9.25 ( 6.00-13.75) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Teays Valley (1-2) 33%
( 7%) WWLWLLW: 8.45 ( 5.80-11.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Louisville (2-1) 100%
( 6%) WLLWLWW: 8.30 ( 6.50-12.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Massillon Washington (2-0) 100%
( 2%) WLLLLLL: 2.10 ( 1.10- 4.95) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 116.6, #244, D2 #54), 15% (likely needs 7-3), 3% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 107.5, #308, D2 #62), 12% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 104.2, #334, D2 #67), 15% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 117.9, #220, D2 #54), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 121.6