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Rankings
#54 of 104 in Division 2
#14 of 27 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #58 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #78 in D2 (-435 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 31-23 A #163 Worthington Kilbourne (3-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 119
08/29 W 42-14 H #298 Sheridan (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 4 (42%), perf. rating 149
09/05 L 35-14 H #135 Teays Valley (3-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 101
09/12 L 35-7 A #110 Bishop Hartley (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 21 (11%), perf. rating 100
09/19 A #219 Johnstown (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 4 (40%)
09/26 H #165 Granville (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/03 H #297 Mount Vernon (2-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/10 A #569 Zanesville (0-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/17 A #397 Licking Heights (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/24 H #99 Licking Valley (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 21 (8%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
18% (likely needs 6-4), 6% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.78 ( 4.85-23.30) 39% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
Lose: 8.15 ( 2.10-19.25) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 7W: 20.95 (19.00-23.30) 100% in, 93% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Northland (2-2) 13%
(14%) 6W: 16.20 (13.70-19.70) 84% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Northland (2-2) 10%
(26%) 5W: 12.30 ( 9.45-17.95) 7% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) 17%
(31%) 4W: 8.70 ( 6.70-13.50) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(18%) 3W: 5.80 ( 3.80-10.70) out, proj. out
( 6%) 2W: 3.65 ( 2.65- 7.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWW: 20.95 (19.00-23.30) 100% in, 93% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Northland (2-2) 13%
(10%) WWWWWL: 16.10 (13.70-18.30) 80% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Northland (2-2) 11%
( 7%) LWWWWL: 12.50 (10.95-15.10) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Ashland (4-0) 20%
(14%) WLWWWL: 11.65 ( 9.45-14.45) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out), DeSales (Columbus) (3-1) 16%
( 4%) WLLWWL: 8.55 ( 7.05-11.05) out
(21%) LLWWWL: 8.25 ( 6.70-10.80) out
(12%) LLLWWL: 5.30 ( 3.80- 7.50) out
( 5%) LLLWLL: 3.65 ( 2.65- 5.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 117.7, #233, D2 #54), 18% (likely needs 6-4), 6% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 113.8, #264, D2 #62), 14% (likely needs 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 122.9, #200, D2 #53), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 32% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 108.2, #301, D2 #69), 32% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 112.2, #258, D2 #53), 42% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 108.7