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Rankings
#75 of 80 in Division 1
#20 of 20 in Region 3
Strength of schedule #79 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #80 in D1 (-887 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 16-12 A #313 Newark (2-1) D1 R3, pick: L by 26 (12%), perf. rating 103
08/28 L 34-21 H #234 Bishop Ready (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 12 (27%), perf. rating 97
09/04 L 32-7 A #180 Sheridan (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 17 (17%), perf. rating 90
09/11 H #238 Buckeye Valley (2-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 19 (13%)
09/18 A #435 Northridge (1-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 6 (65%)
09/25 H #340 Zanesville (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 5 (38%)
10/02 A #244 Watkins Memorial (1-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/09 H #91 Licking Valley (3-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/16 H #356 Mount Vernon (1-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/23 A #84 Granville (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 35 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
4.15 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R3 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.00 ( 1.45-24.60) 24% in, 4% home, proj. out (#5-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 13%
Lose: 2.65 ( 0.00-20.45) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 18.08 (14.90-21.05) 99% in, 49% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), St Charles (3-0) 16%
( 3%) 5W: 13.55 ( 9.85-18.20) 73% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 15%
( 9%) 4W: 9.90 ( 6.20-14.30) 15% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Worthington Kilbourne (3-0) 21%
(17%) 3W: 6.65 ( 3.65-12.10) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(23%) 2W: 4.15 ( 1.90- 9.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(26%) 1W: 2.05 ( 0.80- 5.45) out, proj. out
(20%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWLWL: 12.90 ( 9.85-15.85) 64% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Pickerington Central (0-3) 15%
( 4%) LWWWLWL: 9.35 ( 7.45-12.35) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Olentangy Berlin (2-1) 26%
( 9%) LWWLLWL: 6.35 ( 4.25- 9.00) out
( 7%) LWWLLLL: 4.35 ( 2.55- 7.05) out
( 8%) LWLLLWL: 3.60 ( 1.90- 6.25) out
(14%) LWLLLLL: 2.10 ( 0.80- 3.55) out
( 6%) LLLLLWL: 1.50 ( 1.10- 3.20) out
(20%) LLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (0-3, 97.2, #384, D1 #75), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 105.3, #327, D1 #72), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 104.8, #327, D1 #74), 24% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 97.5, #385, D1 #75), 22% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 93.4