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Rankings
#19 of 102 in Division 3
#6 of 26 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #2 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D3 (+128 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 27-24 H #88 Garfield Heights (4-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 135
08/28 L 21-17 A #147 Salem (6-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 127
09/04 L 19-7 A #52 Cardinal Mooney (3-3) D5 R17, pick: L by 23 (10%), perf. rating 137
09/11 L 24-21 H #138 Poland Seminary (3-3) D4 R13, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 126
09/18 W 28-27 A #194 Youngstown (1-4) D2 R5, pick: W by 12 (77%), perf. rating 127
09/25 W 24-14 A #103 West Branch (5-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 20 (10%), perf. rating 155
10/02 H #123 Louisville (4-2) D2 R7, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/09 A Wheeling Park WV (2-3) D2
10/16 H #41 South Range (6-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/23 H #287 Boardman (0-6) D2 R5, pick: W by 24 (94%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
11.84 Harbin points (divisor 98)
out of R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
16% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.67 ( 9.46-22.59) 28% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Glenville (4-2) 18%
Lose: 9.40 ( 5.95-18.57) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Glenville (4-2) 21%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 19.78 (16.77-22.59) 100% in, 76% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Hawken (4-2) 15%
(25%) 5W: 15.35 (11.93-19.54) 49% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Glenville (4-2) 19%
(45%) 4W: 11.84 ( 8.37-16.18) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(25%) 3W: 8.28 ( 5.99-13.69) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 7.07 ( 5.95- 8.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWW: 19.78 (16.77-22.59) 100% in, 76% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Hawken (4-2) 15%
( 4%) WLWW: 17.19 (14.94-19.54) 85% in, 9% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Glenville (4-2) 18%
(20%) WWLW: 14.89 (11.93-17.80) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Glenville (4-2) 20%
( 2%) LLWW: 13.12 (11.54-14.29) 5% in, proj. out (#12-out), Glenville (4-2) 38%
(24%) WLLW: 12.40 ( 9.95-14.70) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out), Glenville (4-2) 38%
(18%) LWLW: 11.23 ( 8.37-13.63) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Gilmour Academy (3-3) 100%
(21%) LLLW: 8.23 ( 5.99-10.63) out
( 2%) LLLL: 7.07 ( 5.95- 8.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (2-4, 134.7, #125, D3 #19), 16% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (1-4, 131.9, #141, D3 #23), 5% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (0-4, 134.2, #119, D3 #19), 9% (likely needs 5-5), 3% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 135.3, #120, D3 #21), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 132.9, #132, D3 #18), 18% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 128.4, #162, D3 #24), 30% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 135.1, #121, D3 #19), 52% (bubble if 6-4), 36% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 141.8