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Rankings
#76 of 104 in Division 2
#18 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #71 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #88 in D2 (-570 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 14-10 A #292 Wilmington (3-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 29 (9%), perf. rating 106
08/29 L 37-7 H #80 Indian Hill (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 28 (8%), perf. rating 98
09/05 L 28-21 A #309 Ross (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 100
09/12 W 40-14 H #582 Carroll (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 29 (96%), perf. rating 102
09/19 A #646 Woodward (Cincy) (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 36 (99%)
09/26 H #408 Mount Healthy (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/03 A #171 Talawanda (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/10 H #547 Dunbar (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/17 H #4 Bishop Watterson (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/24 H #50 Harrison (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 37 (1%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
4.47 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.37 ( 1.66-16.18) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 3.32 ( 1.11- 8.66) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 5W: 9.21 ( 6.99-14.47) 13% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(57%) 4W: 4.47 ( 2.81-10.28) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(33%) 3W: 3.82 ( 2.21- 8.06) out, proj. out
( 4%) 2W: 1.66 ( 1.66- 3.88) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 4%) WWWWLL: 9.16 ( 6.99-11.69) 12% in, proj. out (#11-out), Xenia (3-1) 40%
(56%) WWLWLL: 4.47 ( 2.81- 7.10) out
(29%) WLLWLL: 3.87 ( 2.21- 5.64) out
( 3%) WWLLLL: 2.26 ( 2.26- 4.43) out
( 4%) WLLLLL: 1.66 ( 1.66- 3.27) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 98.3, #383, D2 #76), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 96.5, #391, D2 #78), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 95.7, #399, D2 #80), 4% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 97.6, #376, D2 #77), 8% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 88.2, #465, D2 #90), 9% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 92.5