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Rankings
#65 of 104 in Division 2
#16 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #77 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D2 (-248 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 36-8 A #582 Carroll (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 109
08/29 L 27-21 H #228 Butler (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 16 (21%), perf. rating 107
09/05 W 42-7 A #494 Sidney (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 18 (84%), perf. rating 134
09/12 L 41-6 H #30 Tippecanoe (4-0) D3 R12, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 108
09/19 H #486 Greenville (2-2) D3 R12, pick: W by 27 (95%)
09/26 A #105 Troy (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 28 (4%)
10/03 H #557 West Carrollton (0-4) D2 R8, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/10 H #261 Piqua (1-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/17 A #287 Fairborn (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 2 (44%)
10/24 A #122 Xenia (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
25% (likely needs 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.05 ( 3.90-22.30) 26% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Xenia (3-1) 20%
Lose: 3.50 ( 1.70-14.15) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 7W: 16.35 (15.15-18.25) 100% in, 46% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 20%
(22%) 6W: 11.55 (10.95-15.75) 84% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 22%
(38%) 5W: 8.05 ( 7.45-12.80) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 33%
(31%) 4W: 5.15 ( 5.10- 9.30) out, proj. out
( 4%) 3W: 3.45 ( 2.90- 6.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLWWWW: 16.35 (15.75-17.60) 100% in, 49% home, proj. #9 (#5-#11), Xenia (3-1) 20%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 16.30 (15.15-18.00) 100% in, 40% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Lima Senior (2-2) 27%
( 1%) WLWLWW: 12.80 (12.20-14.05) 95% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 21%
(18%) WLWWWL: 11.55 (10.95-14.00) 83% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Xenia (3-1) 22%
(18%) WLWLWL: 8.05 ( 8.00-11.05) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Xenia (3-1) 33%
(17%) WLWWLL: 8.05 ( 7.45-10.55) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Xenia (3-1) 39%
(29%) WLWLLL: 5.15 ( 5.10- 7.55) out
( 3%) LLWLLL: 2.90 ( 2.90- 4.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 110.1, #290, D2 #65), 25% (likely needs 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 109.7, #289, D2 #64), 27% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 108.0, #309, D2 #67), 32% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 108.6, #299, D2 #67), 41% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 99.6, #357, D2 #74), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 99.5