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Rankings
#74 of 100 in Division 2
#20 of 25 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #67 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #67 in D2 (-377 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 41-6 H #539 Carroll (2-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 27 (89%), perf. rating 123
08/28 L 42-28 A #170 Butler (5-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 25 (10%), perf. rating 108
09/04 L 49-42 H #492 Sidney (1-5) D2 R8, pick: W by 33 (97%), perf. rating 68
09/11 L 63-0 A #47 Tippecanoe (5-1) D3 R12, pick: L by 38 (1%), perf. rating 95
09/18 W 21-12 A #484 Greenville (1-5) D3 R12, pick: W by 11 (75%), perf. rating 97
09/25 L 42-7 H #116 Troy (5-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 31 (2%), perf. rating 82
10/02 A #545 West Carrollton (0-6) D3 R12, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/09 A #358 Piqua (2-4) D2 R8, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/16 H #239 Fairborn (4-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/23 H #222 Xenia (3-3) D2 R8, pick: L by 23 (7%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.50 ( 3.30-15.00) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 3.35 ( 2.75- 9.70) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 5W: 9.65 ( 7.90-12.05) out, proj. out
(28%) 4W: 6.20 ( 5.00- 9.70) out, proj. out
(57%) 3W: 3.90 ( 3.30- 8.00) out, proj. out
( 8%) 2W: 3.35 ( 2.75- 4.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWL: 9.65 ( 8.45-12.05) out
( 3%) WWLW: 9.10 ( 7.90-11.50) out
( 5%) WLWL: 7.35 ( 6.15- 9.70) out
( 4%) WLLW: 6.80 ( 6.20- 9.10) out
(18%) WWLL: 6.20 ( 5.00- 8.55) out
( 1%) LWLL: 5.65 ( 4.45- 6.85) out
(55%) WLLL: 3.90 ( 3.30- 5.70) out
( 8%) LLLL: 3.35 ( 2.75- 4.50) out
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (2-4, 93.9, #402, D2 #74), unlikely to contend for playoffs, proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (2-3, 94.8, #401, D2 #75), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 95.6, #406, D2 #75), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 97.1, #385, D2 #70), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 111.5, #283, D2 #59), 25% (likely needs 7-3), 5% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 109.0, #292, D2 #59), 26% (likely needs 7-3), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 104.5, #320, D2 #66), 21% (bubble if 7-3), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 106.9