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Rankings
#2 of 107 in Division 7
#2 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #4 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #3 in D7 (+710 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 31-7 H #249 Celina (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 149
08/29 W 27-19 A #185 Archbold (3-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 22 (87%), perf. rating 139
09/05 L 21-14 H #22 Marion Local (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 30 (5%), perf. rating 155
09/12 W 33-13 A #327 Fort Recovery (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 29 (96%), perf. rating 137
09/19 H #180 Anna (3-1) D6 R24, pick: W by 18 (87%)
09/26 A #206 Minster (3-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/03 H #541 Parkway (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 46 (99%)
10/10 A #389 St Johns (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/17 H #139 New Bremen (4-0) D7 R28, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/24 A #146 Versailles (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
17.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 77% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.00 ( 9.80-23.65) 100% in, 99% home, 84% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#12), bye 84%
Lose: 14.15 ( 6.70-20.20) 99% in, 80% home, 35% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 35%
Based on eventual number of wins
(45%) 9W: 20.35 (17.50-23.65) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(31%) 8W: 17.40 (14.50-21.80) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 89%
(16%) 7W: 14.65 (11.65-20.75) 100% in, 99% home, 32% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#10), bye 32%
( 6%) 6W: 12.10 ( 8.75-15.50) 100% in, 72% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#2-#11), Notre Dame (4-0) 19%
( 2%) 5W: 9.85 ( 7.80-12.85) 99% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Notre Dame (4-0) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(45%) WWWWWW: 20.35 (17.50-23.65) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 3%) WLWWWW: 17.95 (15.25-20.75) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#7), bye 95%
( 3%) LWWWWW: 17.45 (15.20-20.20) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#6), bye 91%
(15%) WWWWWL: 17.35 (14.50-20.50) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 92%
( 9%) WWWWLW: 17.20 (14.75-19.55) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#8), bye 82%
( 2%) WLWWWL: 15.40 (13.05-17.75) 100% in, 99% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 51%
( 8%) WWWWLL: 14.25 (11.80-16.90) 100% in, 98% home, 19% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 19%
( 1%) LLWWLL: 9.57 ( 7.80-10.90) 98% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Notre Dame (4-0) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 142.5, #90, D7 #2), likely in, 96% home (maybe if 6-4), 77% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 141.8, #92, D7 #2), likely in, 92% home (maybe if 6-4), 57% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 140.8, #93, D7 #2), likely in, 92% home (maybe if 5-5), 64% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 142.0, #91, D7 #2), 95% (bubble if 4-6), 79% home (maybe if 6-4), 43% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 129.6, #153, D7 #4), 67% (bubble if 4-6), 45% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 5-5
Last season 133.8