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Rankings
#5 of 108 in Division 6
#1 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #2 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #5 in D6 (+408 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 38-35 A #79 Celina (7-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 25 (87%), perf. rating 141
08/28 L 41-15 H #46 Archbold (7-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 113
09/04 W 34-21 H #149 Versailles (4-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 6 (37%), perf. rating 147
09/11 W 39-0 A #223 Anna (4-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 2 (55%), perf. rating 179
09/18 W 54-0 A #422 Parkway (2-5) D6 R22, pick: W by 39 (99%), perf. rating 156
09/25 L 17-7 H #35 Marion Local (7-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 12 (22%), perf. rating 144
10/02 W 21-16 H #136 New Bremen (3-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 16 (85%), perf. rating 138
10/09 A #122 Minster (6-1) D7 R28, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/16 H #76 Coldwater (6-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/23 A #460 St Johns (1-6) D7 R26, pick: W by 40 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
90% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.85 (11.10-17.25) 99% in, 40% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Madison-Plains (5-1) 16%
Lose: 9.85 ( 8.45-13.90) 66% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Madison-Plains (5-1) 39%
Based on eventual number of wins
(45%) 7W: 15.85 (15.15-17.25) 100% in, 62% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Huntington (5-2) 23%
(38%) 6W: 12.50 (11.80-15.50) 98% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Madison-Plains (5-1) 38%
(17%) 5W: 9.50 ( 9.10-12.50) 43% in, proj. out (#12-out), Madison-Plains (5-1) 39%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(45%) WWW: 15.85 (15.15-17.25) 100% in, 62% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Huntington (5-2) 23%
(12%) LWW: 12.85 (12.45-13.90) 98% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Madison-Plains (5-1) 39%
(25%) WLW: 12.50 (11.80-13.55) 99% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Madison-Plains (5-1) 38%
(16%) LLW: 9.50 ( 9.10-10.30) 42% in, proj. out (#12-out), Madison-Plains (5-1) 39%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 145.0, #67, D6 #5), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 6 (3-3, 145.7, #73, D6 #5), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 36% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 146.6, #73, D6 #5), 85% (bubble if 5-5), 46% home (likely needs 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 145.6, #73, D6 #4), 76% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (likely needs 7-3), 9% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 135.0, #122, D6 #6), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 23% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 127.3, #167, D6 #10), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 135.7, #119, D6 #9), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 146.6, #69, D6 #4), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 66% home (maybe if 6-4), 40% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Last season 151.6