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Rankings
#3 of 108 in Division 6
#1 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #2 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #3 in D6 (+471 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 38-35 A #63 Celina (8-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 25 (87%), perf. rating 145
08/28 L 41-15 H #38 Archbold (8-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 117
09/04 W 34-21 H #144 Versailles (5-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 6 (37%), perf. rating 148
09/11 W 39-0 A #173 Anna (5-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 2 (55%), perf. rating 186
09/18 W 54-0 A #433 Parkway (2-6) D6 R22, pick: W by 39 (99%), perf. rating 154
09/25 L 17-7 H #25 Marion Local (8-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 12 (22%), perf. rating 148
10/02 W 21-16 H #148 New Bremen (3-5) D7 R28, pick: W by 16 (85%), perf. rating 135
10/09 W 48-12 A #157 Minster (6-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 8 (70%), perf. rating 185
10/16 H #115 Coldwater (6-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/23 A #482 St Johns (1-7) D7 R26, pick: W by 44 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
15.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 6-4), 44% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.90 (14.50-16.60) 100% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#12), Madison-Plains (6-1) 21%
Lose: 12.95 (11.90-13.30) 73% in, proj. #12 (#11-out), Mechanicsburg (6-2) 35%
Based on eventual number of wins
(87%) 7W: 15.90 (15.15-16.60) 100% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Madison-Plains (6-1) 21%
(12%) 6W: 12.95 (12.25-15.55) 74% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Mechanicsburg (6-2) 34%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(87%) WW: 15.90 (15.15-16.60) 100% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Madison-Plains (6-1) 21%
(12%) LW: 12.95 (12.25-13.30) 73% in, proj. #12 (#11-out), Mechanicsburg (6-2) 35%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 145.0, #67, D6 #5), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 6 (3-3, 145.7, #73, D6 #5), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 36% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 146.6, #73, D6 #5), 85% (bubble if 5-5), 46% home (likely needs 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 4 (2-2, 145.6, #73, D6 #4), 76% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (likely needs 7-3), 9% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 135.0, #122, D6 #6), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 23% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 2 (0-2, 127.3, #167, D6 #10), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 135.7, #119, D6 #9), 53% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 146.6, #69, D6 #4), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 66% home (maybe if 6-4), 40% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Last season 151.6