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Rankings
#82 of 106 in Division 5
#20 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #60 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #89 in D5 (-550 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 35-13 H #430 Danville (2-2) D7 R27, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 56
08/29 L 14-3 A #467 Bexley (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 13 (74%), perf. rating 69
09/05 L 53-14 H #270 Centerburg (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 29 (5%), perf. rating 53
09/12 W 21-20 A #570 Newark Catholic (1-3) D7 R27, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 71
09/19 A #273 Columbus Academy (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 34 (2%)
09/26 H #628 Berne Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/03 A #234 Grandview Heights (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/10 A #174 Orrville (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/17 A #518 Dayton Christian (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/24 H #511 Waverly (0-4) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
4.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.60 ( 4.50-18.30) 25% in, 2% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Lose: 4.75 ( 0.75-18.20) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 5W: 12.25 ( 9.50-15.95) 64% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#6-out)
(15%) 4W: 8.85 ( 5.95-13.20) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(32%) 3W: 6.25 ( 3.30-10.70) out, proj. out
(42%) 2W: 4.00 ( 1.25- 6.75) out, proj. out
( 9%) 1W: 1.25 ( 0.75- 2.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(14%) LWLLWW: 8.80 ( 6.35-11.05) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Africentric Early Coll. (3-1) 29%
(13%) LWLLWL: 7.10 ( 4.90- 9.10) out
(18%) LWLLLW: 5.75 ( 3.30- 8.00) out
( 1%) LLLLWL: 4.35 ( 3.35- 5.70) out
(38%) LWLLLL: 4.00 ( 2.45- 6.70) out
( 2%) LLLLLW: 2.65 ( 1.25- 4.40) out
( 9%) LLLLLL: 1.25 ( 0.75- 2.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 70.4, #560, D5 #82), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 70.8, #554, D5 #83), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 72.0, #553, D5 #82), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 84.9, #474, D5 #70), 13% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 86.5, #477, D5 #64), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 92.0