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Rankings
#38 of 106 in Division 5
#6 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #66 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D5 (-93 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 30-3 A #573 Grove City Christian (3-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 108
08/28 W 31-12 H #440 Bexley (3-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 115
09/04 W 31-13 A #368 Centerburg (5-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 128
09/11 L 15-6 H #372 Newark Catholic (5-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 18 (86%), perf. rating 83
09/18 L 28-7 H #192 Columbus Academy (5-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 22 (8%), perf. rating 91
09/25 W 56-17 A #580 Berne Union (4-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 29 (97%), perf. rating 124
10/02 W 40-14 H #564 Grandview Heights (2-5) D6 R23, pick: W by 30 (97%), perf. rating 105
10/09 H #218 Orrville (6-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/16 H #436 Dayton Christian (4-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/23 A #412 Waverly (4-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
18.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#4 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 65% bye (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.20 (15.50-24.50) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#5), bye 98%
Lose: 18.15 (11.65-20.95) 100% in, 99% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#10), bye 59%
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 8W: 22.45 (20.65-24.50) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#4), bye 100%
(52%) 7W: 18.90 (16.70-22.20) 100% home, 91% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 91%
(30%) 6W: 16.05 (14.05-18.30) 100% home, 18% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), Vinton County (4-3) 26%
( 6%) 5W: 13.15 (11.65-14.75) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Piketon (4-3) 27%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWW: 22.45 (20.65-24.50) 100% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) WWL: 19.75 (17.75-21.75) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 99%
(49%) LWW: 18.90 (16.70-20.95) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 90%
(22%) LWL: 16.25 (14.40-18.30) 100% home, 19% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), Vinton County (4-3) 26%
( 7%) LLW: 15.80 (14.05-17.85) 100% home, 15% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#7), Vinton County (4-3) 25%
( 6%) LLL: 13.15 (11.65-14.75) 100% in, 98% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Piketon (4-3) 27%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 103.2, #346, D5 #38), appears locked in and likely home, 65% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 6 (4-2, 102.2, #348, D5 #40), appears locked in and likely home, 62% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 5 (3-2, 99.7, #366, D5 #44), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 4-6), 53% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 100.0, #365, D5 #44), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 5-5), 39% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 104.4, #336, D5 #37), likely in, 98% home (maybe if 5-5), 83% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 96.2, #387, D5 #50), 92% (bubble if 4-6), 76% home (maybe if 5-5), 40% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 98.1, #381, D5 #51), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 85.0, #470, D5 #65), 46% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 83.3