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Rankings
#11 of 107 in Division 3
#4 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #27 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #24 in D3 (+57 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/29 W 42-14 A #294 Canton South (1-3) D4 R15, pick: W by 13 (74%), perf. rating 153
09/05 W 49-0 H #370 Woodridge (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 38 (98%), perf. rating 161
09/12 W 56-0 H #495 Kenmore-Garfield (1-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 48 (99%), perf. rating 140
09/19 A #151 Boardman (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 13 (79%)
09/26 A #73 Lake Catholic (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/04 A #195 Holy Name (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/10 H #120 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/17 A #193 Padua Franciscan (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/24 H #265 Elyria Catholic (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 30 (98%)
Regular season projections
8-1 record
24.05 Harbin points (divisor 89)
#3 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
91% (bubble if 6-3), 79% home (maybe if 7-2), 48% bye (maybe if 8-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.50 ( 8.17-34.66) 96% in, 87% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 59%
Lose: 18.55 ( 5.60-28.82) 71% in, 48% home, 16% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
(29%) 9W: 28.76 (25.16-34.66) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(33%) 8W: 24.05 (19.78-30.56) 100% in, 99% home, 57% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 57%
(20%) 7W: 20.32 (15.01-26.08) 99% in, 77% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), East (Akron) (2-2) 11%
(11%) 6W: 16.59 (11.76-23.22) 75% in, 12% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Alliance (3-1) 13%
( 5%) 5W: 13.51 ( 9.40-18.67) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 2%) 4W: 10.42 ( 6.27-14.92) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(29%) WWWWWW: 28.76 (25.16-34.66) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 3%) LWWWWW: 25.71 (22.53-28.82) 100% home, 80% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 80%
(21%) WLWWWW: 23.82 (19.78-28.82) 100% in, 99% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 53%
( 4%) WWWLWW: 23.65 (20.34-27.70) 100% in, 99% home, 47% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 47%
( 3%) WLWWLW: 21.33 (17.31-25.29) 100% in, 90% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), East (Akron) (2-2) 12%
( 5%) LLWWWW: 20.85 (18.44-24.28) 100% in, 90% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), East (Akron) (2-2) 10%
( 6%) WLWLWW: 19.22 (15.06-25.01) 99% in, 58% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-1) 10%
( 1%) LLLLWW: 12.27 ( 9.40-15.25) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Benedictine (4-0) 50%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-0, 146.7, #70, D3 #11), 91% (bubble if 6-3), 79% home (maybe if 7-2), 48% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #3 at 8-1
Week 3 (2-0, 149.1, #62, D3 #10), 87% (bubble if 6-3), 69% home (maybe if 7-2), 38% bye (likely needs 9-0), proj. #6 at 8-1
Week 2 (1-0, 147.4, #71, D3 #10), 87% (bubble if 6-3), 69% home (maybe if 7-2), 37% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #5 at 8-1
Week 1 (0-0, 138.6, #113, D3 #23), 66% (bubble if 6-3), 46% home (maybe if 7-2), 22% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #8 at 7-2
Week 0 (0-0, 138.6, #110, D3 #23), 70% (bubble if 5-4), 48% home (maybe if 7-2), 22% bye (maybe if 8-1), proj. #7 at 7-2
Last season 142.8