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Rankings
#17 of 104 in Division 3
#4 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #33 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D3 (-120 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 16-7 A #141 Brecksville-Broadvw Hts (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 120
08/28 W 49-7 H #407 Canton South (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 156
09/04 L 20-14 A #157 Woodridge (4-0) D4 R13, pick: W by 30 (95%), perf. rating 122
09/12 W 34-0 A #458 Garfield (0-4) D2 R5, pick: W by 35 (98%), perf. rating 139
09/18 H #288 Boardman (0-4) D2 R5, pick: W by 25 (94%)
09/25 H #180 Lake Catholic (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 14 (81%)
10/02 H #227 Holy Name (2-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/09 A #90 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/16 H #255 Padua Franciscan (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/23 A #309 Elyria Catholic (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 25 (95%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.22 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#9 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
69% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.17 ( 2.81-24.20) 71% in, 36% home, 4% bye, proj. #10 (#1-out), Hawken (3-1) 11%
Lose: 11.79 ( 2.31-21.58) 34% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Hawken (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
(26%) 8W: 20.76 (17.83-24.20) 100% in, 96% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 15%
(39%) 7W: 16.22 (12.99-21.68) 92% in, 23% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Hawken (3-1) 13%
(21%) 6W: 12.90 ( 9.01-18.30) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Hawken (3-1) 12%
( 9%) 5W: 10.07 ( 6.13-14.97) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 3%) 4W: 7.40 ( 3.92-11.75) out, proj. out
( 1%) 3W: 5.08 ( 2.81- 8.77) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(26%) WWWWWW: 20.76 (17.83-24.20) 100% in, 96% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 15%
( 3%) WLWWWW: 16.98 (14.00-20.57) 96% in, 32% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Hawken (3-1) 12%
(32%) WWWLWW: 15.87 (12.99-19.71) 91% in, 18% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Hawken (3-1) 13%
( 3%) WWWLWL: 13.55 (10.88-17.95) 44% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Gilmour Academy (2-2) 15%
( 3%) WWLLWW: 12.49 ( 9.61-15.77) 23% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Hawken (3-1) 14%
( 8%) WLWLWW: 12.44 ( 9.61-15.77) 15% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Lake Catholic (2-2) 21%
( 3%) WWWLLW: 12.34 ( 9.01-15.52) 15% in, proj. out (#9-out), Garfield Heights (3-1) 17%
( 1%) WLLLLW: 6.24 ( 3.92- 8.31) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 137.2, #108, D3 #17), 69% (bubble if 6-4), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye, proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 3 (1-2, 137.2, #101, D3 #15), 68% (bubble if 6-4), 39% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye, proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 152.0, #55, D3 #4), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 88% home (maybe if 7-3), 60% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 1 (0-1, 149.9, #54, D3 #4), 91% (bubble if 5-5), 79% home (maybe if 7-3), 53% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 165.5, #23, D3 #2), 96% (bubble if 6-4), 89% home (maybe if 7-3), 72% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 173.8